Monthly Archives: October 2016

Fraud vs Intemidation

General, Philosophy, Politics

Snopes on Voter Fraud

Something that has been bothering me for quite sometime now, years actually, is just why Republicans & Conservatives are so concerned about what they call Voter fraud and seem to turn a blind eye towords Voter intemidation?

So we can keep everything simple, this is after all a very complex subject as any student of Political Science who has had to write a paper on the subject will tell you, lets define some turms first.  First Voter intemidation:  By this I mean any action or speech taken by an individual, private group (either formal or informal) of government agent, that will be taken by a reasonable person as to attempt to prevent that person from voting.  Examples:  “If you vote your home will be trashed.”  Voter intemidation.  “Don’t vote , its just a waist of time.”  Not Voter intemidation.  Now Voter fraud: Any action taken by an individual to cast a vote they are not entitled to.  Example: “Filling out and mailing in a mail-in ballot for your mother who suffers from dementia.”  Voter fraud.  “Attempting and/or casting a vote at the wrong polling place ( precinct ).” Not Voter fraud

That said lets start with the BIG issue in the news, Voter fraud.  No one who studies elections will every say there is NO voter fraud.  What they will say is that there is no significant voter fraud.  An just what is meant by significant?  It is actually quite simple, if the number of suspected fraudulent votes is great enough to swing the election then it is significant.  Example:  In an election with 1000 voters and side A gets 550 votes and side B gets 450 and their are 51 suspected fraudulent votes then it can be significant.  BUT if on inspection there was only 5 fraudulent votes it is not significant.

The current favorite form of Voter fraud we are being asked to worry about is the kind know as Inperson.  That is where someone shows up to vote and they are not that person.  Example:  “Someone shows up and cast the vote for someone else.”  In this case lets say the person committing Voter fraud knows the person they are impersonating is not going to vote and they decide to vote for them.  Sounds easy, but it really isn’t.  Just stop and think about it.  This person is taking a very great risk.  Voter fraud is a very  serious felony and they will be looking for them.  It is also one of the easiest to detect, all it really takes is the person being impersonated to show up at the polling place and trying to vote.

But lets now look at the proposed solution to make inperson Voter fraud harder, State issued Photo IDs.  To not run afoul of Voter suppression every person in a given state must have an equal and unfettered opportunity to get the correct Photo ID.  The kicker here is the unfettered part.  Just because something is equal does not mean everyone can do it.  Example:  Everyone who wants to vote need to apply at a state office.  Every county in the state has one, and only one , such office in the county seat.  That’s equal, isn’t it?  But wait, what about all the people who live in the far reaches of the county?  They may have to drive a long way and spend the better part of a day getting the ID.  This is very true in states with big counties like California or Texas.  See where the unfettered comes in?  It is not just that everyone must get the ID, they also must have a equal level of effort they have to go thru to get the ID.

Finally I want to point out the ‘bang for the buck’ of these two voting problems.  Inperson Voter fraud is very labor intensive.  Each an every vote needs to be cast by an actual person and that takes time.  Even if you say voting only takes an hour (10 mins acctual voting, 50 min travel and waiting in line time) and your state has 12 hours of open poles, that’s only 12 votes per person.  Now think about how much effort it takes a state legislature from it’s total session time, to inact a Voter ID Law and how many people it can keep from voting.  I’m sad to say that accurate numbers are very hard to find as way to many times the Voter ID laws are not voted on individually but are parts of other bills.  When I get some good numbers, & citations) I promise to update this posting.

So I ask you, which is the bigger threat to our democracy, Voter fraud or Voter suppression?

Slowball Softball

General, Philosophy, Politics

Twice now in inside of two weeks both Trump and leading lights of the GOP have mufted a softball bitch.  Indeed, they were not only softballs, they were slowballs.  This has to say something about the political compantentcy of the GOP and their Presedential nominee.

The first mufted softball, is of course the infamaus question about accepting the results of the election this November.  When I first heard it, while I was watching the debate, I couldn’t help but think “What a ‘No Brainer'”.  I fully expected Trump tho answer in is most famous way of snark “What kind of question is that?  Of course I’ll accept the results.  I’m going to win, it will be ‘Huge’.  So of course I’ll accept it.”  Instead he swung and hit the catcher in the head.  I fully except this whole horable scene to be in most PoliSci classes on how to ‘Blow it Big Time’.

An now, today, the GOP and Trump get  another gift of a slowball underhand pitch in the great FBI Letter.  Such an opportunity for both Trump and his GOP  surrogates to take the high ground and look responsible and Presidential.  An the go and just hit the ball slowly down the line strait to the Firstabaseman.  There were so many great ways to play this to their advantage I don’t have time or space to list them all.  All of them would have been good for Trump and the GOP, no mater how the facts turn out.  Even with the total exoneration of Clinton the Trump campaign could have come out winner.  Instead they look just like what they are.  People so full of hate, anger, and bruised ego that they just can’t help themselves, they will attack.  It reminds me of how the Frinch army thought 102 years ago “No mater the tactical situation, attack.”  As for me I perfur the what Napoleon  said 201 years ago “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.  It’s not polite.”

No, it’s not silly

General, Politics

Warning: This posting will be taken as an attack by the more sensitive Alt Right.

 

Some people who have read my last posting about Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the election except if he wins as being silly.  I want to make it very clear.  Anyone who thinks that I was being silly or taking exception to Donald Trumps statement is silly are very much in error.

It is anything but silly.  Anyone who does not accept the rules of how we, the United States of America, perform our elections is a clear danger to this country and everything we have worked for since 1776. Refusing to accept the results, win loose or draw means you don not believe in democracy.  It also means you have no idea just how this country runs it’s elections and just how impossible it would be to rig the election of the Presedent.  Not counting the commonwealth there are 50, 50!, separate States running the elections.  To rig the election in even a majority, by electoral votes, of these states would require a conspiracy of such magnitude it would stager the imagination.  To do so with absolutely no credibil evidence seeing the light of day boarders on the paranoid.

To those who still think that Donald Trump is correct in not accepting the election results I wish to say just this.  Why should those who support Hillary Clinton accept the results it Donald Trump happens to win?  Indeed, why should the other 16 Republican candidates in the primary have accepted any of the results in the state primaries?  After all Donald Trump was thought to be a bad joke for much of the process.  By saying you don’t accept the results you are saying you are no longer willing to be a part of the process. An this road leads to  ruin for this country you say you love.

I am not being extreme here.  If you are unwilling to accept the results of an election when there is no credible evidence of wrong doing you are taking the first step down a path you may not want to go.  An no, this is not the informal logical fallacy of “slippery slope”.  Rather it is to point out that it is a diagnostic of the loss of faith in the electoral process and this loss has been shown to lead to very troubled time for any democracy that has suffered it.  We may come out of this better off, we may come out worse off, I don’t know.  I do know that all too often the process will be very painful for all involved.

This is why I hope to see Mr. Trump to loose by the largest popular vote in the history of this country.  I want to see the largest turnout in history.  I want the vote spread to be the largest in history.  In this way we, the American Electorate can show in the clearest manner possible that we still have faith in our electoral process.

Inclosing I can just say this:

Get Out and Vote on or before November 8th!

Betraying Trump

General, Politics

RANT ALERT!!!!!!!

 

This is going to be short and to the point.  I’m not saying in the title to this post to betray Trump.  I am saying Donald Trump is betraying both the Democracy he wishes to become the Presedent and he is also the GOP.  Last night Trump stated clearly and for the record that he Would Not accept the results of the election.  Today he said what he meant was that he would except the results, but only if he won.

This should and a hope and pray will, disqualify him for the Presedntcy.  I fear what his followers will do if and when he looses.  I fear what kind of party will rise out of the ashs of the Republican Party (I have seen the GOP rise from the ashs before so I am fully confident it is capable of doing this now). I will make no predictions here and now.  I just want to go on the record that I have not been this worried about my country since the Nixon Impeachment. When for a time we had no idea if Nixon would backdown or fight.  That is how frightend I am.  I hope and pray I’m borrowing trouble.

On Anger and Fear in the Politics today

General, Politics

I have been puzzling quite a bit for the past few weeks, months really, about all of the vitrol I’m seeing in the political debate this year.  I’ve been aware of presidental politics since 1964 and really paying attention to politics since 1967.  An except for the very bad years of of the late 60’s I don’t think I’ve ever seen such anger, and fear,  being spewed forth.  Maybe it is just that it is so much easier now, with all the social media and cable news to just see it, but I fear this is not the case.  I think my, our, country is for a very ruff row to howe for the next few years.

Let me state right now, as clearly as I can that what I say now is not to place blame, or fault.  It is merely to state where I’m seeing the anger now.  Nor will I attempt to state why this fear and anger are present, that is for a later post after I’ve done a great deal more research. For now I wish just to point out where I am seeing it now, this election, today.

I know, even as I write this that a lot of people, people I call friends, are going to be saying I am attacking them.  I AM NOT.  What I’m attempting to do is pointing out that I see they have a splinter in their eye and asking if I can help them remove it.  Hopefully they will do the same for me.  I know that most people who are angry will feel attacked when told they are angry or when they are disagreed with.  What I and asking is let me help you.  Tell me what you are angry about, maybe I can suggest something that will help you be less angry.  Maybe, if we are lucky solve what ever is making you angry and then you can no longer be angry.  This is not easy in politics.

You first must admit, if only to yourself, that you are mad as hell.  But in stead of saying “I’m not getting over it” you need to say “hear what I’m trying to say”.  If you do I promise to do my best not to take your anger personally but please make my life easier by not venting your anger at me. (Unless of course I am the reason your angry.). I think our problem on the right right now is we have a whole lot of people who are very angry and they really haven’t thought about just what they are angry about.  What has happen is a great many people who should know better have said “Your Mad As Hell and here is some one, or something, to aim you anger at”.   So I am asking “Who or what are you so angry at.”  An “Why are you so Angry?”  Tell me, so I can have a chance to help.

If you don’t talk to me about your anger there is very little I can do to help.  An sadly it is most likely your anger will fester until it does both you, me, and our nation harm.  Please don’t let this happen.

The corporate vail

General, Philosophy

With all of the talk about Wells Fargo’s actions in the news and how the Corporate Sr. management is skating any legal or financial responsibility I’d like to put in my two cents worth.  Lets just change how the corporate vail works.  Lets just change one thing.  If the state or the plantif can not show that the Sr. Management did not know, and that under ‘normal’ business pratictics would not know that the unlawful acts done in the company name then those same Sr. Execs would be guilt of gross malfeasances and be subject to termination and forfeiture of all payments and/or benifets from the date of the first infraction.  I think this will encourage the execs to be more watchful.  This rule should be applied to every manager from the first manager above the level of the corporate structure the infraction(s) occurred at be applied to all management, including board members but not general stock holders, to the highest exec.