Recently I’ve been rereading the Foundation Trilogy by Dr. Asimov and I noticed something for the first time. In the stories Dr. A never really gives the ready a good idea of just how long a ’Crisis’ takes to build and just what all of the key and/or important events are. Only the ones key to the story line. Which is great for telling a story but not so great for someone who is trying to extrapolate a Socio/Politico/History.
I’ve become aware of this with all of the small (relatively) small events that have been happening this past year. With the release of the latest Trump Tape where we can hear what is reported to be Donald Trump actually revealing what he said was/are classified documents/information to person(s) not cleared to have that information. He also made it clear that he understood, at that time, the rules and regulations regarding classified documents/information. What is important is currently Donald Trump has yet to be charged with the improper revelation of classified information, only the improper possession and failure to return government documents.
I’ve gone in to this detail to illustrate just how complex a Sheldon Crisis is and how it can turn on the smallest things. The small detail here is that he talked about it. Another detail is he let himself be recorded. Finally it shows that even if the Trump wins the Mar-A-Largo case he still faces possible charges in New Jersey for the actual act of disclosing the information to person or persons not cleared for that information.
So inclosing we currently have two major ’crux points’ in the Crisis, the New York State charge(s) and the Federal Mar-A-Largo charges. We have another two potential ’cruxes’; the possible Federal charge(s) on reveling of classified information in New Jersey and the Federal Sedition charge(s) in D.C. Both of these could be made up of many smaller crux points. Which points are important and which are not is the question. I guess we will just have to wait and see, or until the Vault opens at Terminus City.
Once again the Nation gets to watch the MAGA/GOP swill down the Orange Kool-Aid as Donald Trump does his best to help the prosecution in the Florida trial. An what is even better is how much the GOP leadership is doing it’s best to look like total idiots and fools. Lets just look at what has happened over the last few days.
First Donald, in an interview over the week-end, once again admitted to knowingly keeping the documents while, at the same-time, not doing anything to help keep him out of trouble. He also has shown he has no idea of what laws he has been accused of violating. He keeps talking about the ”Presidential Records Act” and that hasn’t even been mention in passing in the indictment .
Next let’s look at what the House Leadership is talking about, the ”Double Standard” that Trump is be teated with. Now this is something I can agree on, Donald Trump is being treated differently than Richard Roe, private citizen. If you know someone who has or had a security clearance just what would have happened to them if they took home a classified document. I bet they would have told you Federal agents of the appropriate agency (FBI, DIA, USMsh) would have arrested them and taken into custody and then figured out if they should hold you. An if you were charged you would have had a good time trying to get released, much less keep your passport. Now I ask you, did anything like that happen to Donald Trump? Did anything happen to Donald Trump? Was he told to surrender his passport? Was he told to not leave the jurisdiction of the Court? Of the State of Florida? No, he was not. He did even have to post any bail!
So we now have hard evidence that a double standard does exist. It just not what the GOP Leadership is complaining about or maybe it is but they don’t want the GOP rank and file to notice just what is happening. Most people understand where the MAG/GOP rank and file are coming from when they get upset about the perceived special treatment for Biden or Hilary. But what gets hard to take is when they refuse to see it when it applied to Trump. Go ahead and complain about a double standard but keep your eyes open for where and when it happens. The double standard has little to do with what political party you belong to. It has everything to do with how much power/influence/fame/wealth you have.
With the Indictment of Donald J Trump last week and the first of the formal court proceedings (aka reading the charges) we are now entering what is the next phase of our Sheldon Crisis. We are now nearing one of the major crux of this crisis, I hope. In the next year or so we can expect to see one or more things happen, and I am taking this time to list the ones I see right now.
Trump is not convicted.
This can happen in several ways. First and most unlikely is that the Prosecution does an incredibly bad job and/or the Defense does an incredibly good job. As I said, not likely but it has happened in the past.
Next, a still unlikely the defense is able to convince at lest one juror to vote for acquittal . This would end up in a hung jury and most likely lead to a new trial. So the defense needs to get the presiding judge to declare the miss-trial with ’prejudice’.
What I think the defense is trying for is to get the presiding judge to throw out most if not all of the evidence of what Trump is accused of. This is very hard to do and timing will be everything. If at all possible these ruling(s) need to take place so that the prosecution has little or no time to appeal.
Trump is convicted
Now let’s get to the dangerous part. The trial runs its course and Trump is convicted on one or more counts. Now what happens?
Almost assuredly Trump appeals all the way up to the Supreme Court and it has one of several things it can do.
First it could just not hear the case. This could be the best for the Court if the lower court throws out the conviction. But if the conviction is still standing when SCOTUS hears it then the court still has several things it can do. The best for the court would be to put the case on what is sometimes called the ’Merit Docket’ hear all the arguments and then make it’s ruling. Unfortunately this case is the political hot potato of hot potatoes and this court has not shown itself to be willing to take on this kind of case in the ’Merit Docket’ To many people will see just who is a loyal MAGA who isn’t.
SCOTUS could also decide to take the case on what is called the ’Shadow Docket’. This is attractive in that it is done all behind closed doors and without any of the justices putting their name on the ruling. In fact no reasoning needs to be given. SCOTUS could just rule that the case is overturned with prejudice and say nothing else. The one major problem with doing this is that what ever the prestige SCOTUS has with the general public will take a very big hit.
Well my computer is now overheating with running all the Sheldon Equations so I’ll say good by for now.