Tag Archives: Sheldon Crisis

A Big Mistake By Conservatives

Philosophy, Politics,
Pres. Trump on White House Portico

As the Sheldon Crisis continues I thought it was about time to point out one of the biggest mistakes made by Conservative Leaders of any country….They think they can control the person the put into a position of absolute, or unconstrained, power. The problem is caused by them believing that the tools and methods used to control, manipulate, restrain, or otherwise limit the actions of the autocrat will not work on him/her.

This known this from history and I’m not just talking about the 20th century. But since that is the time we have the most complete data lets just look at what happened when Hitler was made Chancellor of Germany. The leaders of the Conservative Party thought they could control him by using the President Hindenburg and packing the cabinet with “there” people. Turns out that Hindenburg was a very weak old man who only had just over a year to live after the “ Reichstag fire”. A while the cabinet did have more conservatives than NSDP party members the NSDP held all the critical offices. An finally they saw Hitler and his people as “fools” and “buffoons” an there for underestimated them.

We got a small sample of this thinking in the Trump Presidency where we were told there would be “adults” in the room to keep Trump from doing anything crazy. We saw just how well that worked, too. From the ‘little’ things like signing checks for false legal fees, to phone call to get election officials to break the law. To, finally wonderful “Stop the Steal” rally of Jan 6. An the only reason why Trumps efforts did not succeed was that Trump did not understand just how our complex Federal System of government is and where the choke points are. We are lucky that Trump’s experience is in the small (but wealthy) business world and that world does not work like politics at all. So he tried to act like he did in his business and it fell flat on it’s face.

But we need to remember that we are going into the next phase of this crisis and things are going to get much more complicated in the years to come. An I, for one, would like to wise up those conservatives who wrongly believe they, or any body, can “control” a would be autocrat (read dictator).

Some Observations on the House of Representatives

General, ,
Congress
The House of Representatives in Session.

I thought I’d be a nice guy and give the U.S. House of Representatives a chance to actually get itself in order by electing a new Speaker but it looks like it is not going to happen anytime soon. The problem, as I see it, for the GOP House caucus is both simple and complex. It is simple in that the fundamental issues are easy to identify and define. It is complex because there is no easy way to resolve conflicts between these issues.

The first issue I’m going to identify is the newest and least expected. The major the GOP caucus has in the house is microscopic only three votes over the 218 needed to elect a speaker and only 9 more that the Democrats. This tight a margin makes for difficult going for any political leader but it is especially difficult if the party is badly fractured like the Republicans in the House currently are.

This brings us to the next issue facing the GOP, it is a badly divided party and the Republicans has historically not dealt with competing political factions well. Ever since its founding in the 1850’s the Republican Party has usually had a dominant faction that controls the party. This dominate faction then makes deals with either the minority faction(s) in it’s own caucus or, failing that, the could find the votes they needed south of the Mason/Dixon line in the Democratic Party (note: I call this strategy the Dixiecrat strategy). The few time this strategy was either not used or did not work the Democrats could gain control. The Dixiecrat strategy stopped working once the new “Nixon Southern Strategy was adopted in the late 60’s early 70’s.

Still things could, and did, be made to work in the House but then came the Newt Gingrich Revolution and the concept of constant conflict as the way to get things done in the House. An while this strategy work a little in the house it did not play well with the Senate.

So now we come to that one of the biggest mistakes made, the idea that Politics can be successfully modeled using ‘Zero Sum’ game theory. This is a very seductive idea because it looks so simple. The problem is that you can end up worse off using a game theory that is incorrect than you can using the correct game theory a loose. Also most people who just have a casual understanding of Zero Sum game theory is that it has one deadly trap, there are actually three results possible. You can Win, you can loose and you can end in a draw. Even worse is that given the rules of the game you can end up where ending is a draw is the most likely result. Don’t believe me, talk with a ‘rated’ chess player.

An now to the last issue, seeing your opponent as the embodiment of everything you despise. This can be expressed as anything “D” touches we have to oppose. This is the death knell to getting anything done in a democratic polity where compromise is the name of the game.

So that is where the Republicans in the House find themselves. They have a small (45) subgroup (the Freedom Caucus) that is to the extreme right of the party and they see everything in a win/loose view. Worse yet they see it as if ‘they win’ I have to have lost. Next the majority of the Republicans in the House have very little to trade away to the Democrats and nothing that doesn’t mater much to their local base. So we end up with game after game after game in a draw, but what is worse is that the larger game, that game of running the country is about to be lost.

Next Posting: Thought experiment “What happens if the congress can not function for 6/12/18 months?”

The Continuing Sheldon Crisis

Politics, Socioeconomic,

Foundation
Hari Sheldon

Recently I’ve been rereading the Foundation Trilogy by Dr. Asimov and I noticed something for the first time. In the stories Dr. A never really gives the ready a good idea of just how long a ’Crisis’ takes to build and just what all of the key and/or important events are. Only the ones key to the story line. Which is great for telling a story but not so great for someone who is trying to extrapolate a Socio/Politico/History.

I’ve become aware of this with all of the small (relatively) small events that have been happening this past year. With the release of the latest Trump Tape where we can hear what is reported to be Donald Trump actually revealing what he said was/are classified documents/information to person(s) not cleared to have that information. He also made it clear that he understood, at that time, the rules and regulations regarding classified documents/information. What is important is currently Donald Trump has yet to be charged with the improper revelation of classified information, only the improper possession and failure to return government documents.

I’ve gone in to this detail to illustrate just how complex a Sheldon Crisis is and how it can turn on the smallest things. The small detail here is that he talked about it. Another detail is he let himself be recorded. Finally it shows that even if the Trump wins the Mar-A-Largo case he still faces possible charges in New Jersey for the actual act of disclosing the information to person or persons not cleared for that information.

So inclosing we currently have two major ’crux points’ in the Crisis, the New York State charge(s) and the Federal Mar-A-Largo charges. We have another two potential ’cruxes’; the possible Federal charge(s) on reveling of classified information in New Jersey and the Federal Sedition charge(s) in D.C. Both of these could be made up of many smaller crux points. Which points are important and which are not is the question. I guess we will just have to wait and see, or until the Vault opens at Terminus City.

The Continuing Sheldon Crisis

Law, Philosophy, Politics, ,
Foundation
Hari Sheldon

With the Indictment of Donald J Trump last week and the first of the formal court proceedings (aka reading the charges) we are now entering what is the next phase of our Sheldon Crisis. We are now nearing one of the major crux of this crisis, I hope. In the next year or so we can expect to see one or more things happen, and I am taking this time to list the ones I see right now.

Trump is not convicted.

This can happen in several ways. First and most unlikely is that the Prosecution does an incredibly bad job and/or the Defense does an incredibly good job. As I said, not likely but it has happened in the past.

Next, a still unlikely the defense is able to convince at lest one juror to vote for acquittal . This would end up in a hung jury and most likely lead to a new trial. So the defense needs to get the presiding judge to declare the miss-trial with ’prejudice’.

What I think the defense is trying for is to get the presiding judge to throw out most if not all of the evidence of what Trump is accused of. This is very hard to do and timing will be everything. If at all possible these ruling(s) need to take place so that the prosecution has little or no time to appeal.

Trump is convicted

Now let’s get to the dangerous part. The trial runs its course and Trump is convicted on one or more counts. Now what happens?

Almost assuredly Trump appeals all the way up to the Supreme Court and it has one of several things it can do.

First it could just not hear the case. This could be the best for the Court if the lower court throws out the conviction. But if the conviction is still standing when SCOTUS hears it then the court still has several things it can do. The best for the court would be to put the case on what is sometimes called the ’Merit Docket’ hear all the arguments and then make it’s ruling. Unfortunately this case is the political hot potato of hot potatoes and this court has not shown itself to be willing to take on this kind of case in the ’Merit Docket’ To many people will see just who is a loyal MAGA who isn’t.

SCOTUS could also decide to take the case on what is called the ’Shadow Docket’. This is attractive in that it is done all behind closed doors and without any of the justices putting their name on the ruling. In fact no reasoning needs to be given. SCOTUS could just rule that the case is overturned with prejudice and say nothing else. The one major problem with doing this is that what ever the prestige SCOTUS has with the general public will take a very big hit.

Well my computer is now overheating with running all the Sheldon Equations so I’ll say good by for now.

Our Continuing Sheldon Crisis…Part 2

Philosophy, Politics, , , ,
Foundation

As I promised in my last posting I’m now going to list some of the reasons I see an ongoing Sheldon Crisis.

  1. The similarities of the the 1850’s and the fall of the American Wigs party and now.
  2. The rise of religious back political action, that is the uses of religion to support political action.
  3. The rise of accepted corruption in the body politic

I will tackle these in reverse order. Since the turn of the 21st century the acceptance by the electorate of corrupt dealings by people in the government, either elected, appointed, or Civil Service, has been becoming more and more pronounced till we end up electing Donald J. Trump as President. Then the powers that be totally ignoring it. An I’m not just talking about the Congress. I’m also talking about the electorate, and not just in the general election. The GOP voter had an entire Primary season to put Trump in the trash, but they didn’t. (see earlier posting on my thoughts on why they did this.) Even now, almost two full years after the end of the Trump administration we have stores coming out about self-dealing of high officials and family members with little or no reaction from the self same high ethics/morality touting conservatives. The last time this happened was in the Gilded Age.

Next is the use of ones religion to justify ones political action(s). Or rather the use of religious fervor to opt-in voters for political power. This has been going on for almost 50 years now to greater and greater effect. Now, please note I am NOT talking about acting or voting based on ones religious beliefs. Nothing can be better than following your religious moral/ethical teaching when voting. I would just like to share one of the earliest bible school teaching I ever got. ”The Devil Quotes Scripture.” When I first heard this someone had the good since to ask the teacher just what that meant. She replied that you can find something in the Scriptures to just doing just about anything. That’s why you need to read not the the passage but also what came before and what comes after. When we told to go look to see if we could find a scripture that would justify staying up past bed time, or only have desert for diner, low and be hold we found quite a few. (Unfortunately all our parents had been warned about the teaching in the class, so no joy there.) It is an unfortunate truth that when people start believing that their religion justifies their doing something they, themselves, would never stand for being done to them we come to the point of doing that which we hate.

An now to the final, and most important point. Also the hardest to really understand. This is because the politics of the USA in the decade before the Civil War is both complex and little written about. It is also fragmented. We have not only the collapse of the American Wigs party and the rise of the Republican party. We have the rise of the ’Nativist’ or ’American’ political movement. Add to that both sides of the Abolition movement justified their position with bible texts.

An that leads me to this final point, a Sheldon Crisis is not simple. It is Complex, Convoluted, Hidden and Obvious. An it is dynamic and always changing. That is why it is so hard to see the answer till the ’crux’ of the crisis is reached. A lot of people will see the answer, a lot won’t, and, unfortunately too many will think they see the answer and be mistaken. These last are the most dangerous.

Our Continuing Sheldon Crisis….

Philosophy, Politics, ,
Foundation

With the 2022 primaries true and well started I’d like to stop and take note of the ”Sheldon” crisis we are in. I know I’ve been talking about a crisis for several years now and before I go on, I’d like to point out some things usually over looked when talking about ”Sheldon” Crisis’. First, the ”Foundation” novels never really give us a good time frame for just how long a ”Sheldon” crisis takes to start and end. Shoot, we never get a good idea of how long it takes to travel from Terminus to Trator. Weeks, months? No clue, just that it is not too long for the people making the trip.

Also we are never told just what a ”Sheldon” crisis is. All we know is that it is a phenomenon of ”Psycohistory” a science that was invented by the mathematician Hari Sheldon. We are also told that ”Psyohistory” can predict the actions of very large bodies of humans (very large being the populations of entire planets if not multiple planets). So just how am I using the phase ”Sheldon” Crisis? What do I mean by it.

Simple put I’m talking about the phenomenon of a Sociopolitical science where a sudden, often violent events occur that mark a distinct change in a socialites social, political, and/or economic state. a good example is what happened between 1914 and 1945. Yes that is 31 years. But in the history of people and nations it is shorter than a blink of the eye. So live with it. I will go on from there.

What I’m looking at today is the possible death of the Republican Party that came into being in the last half of the 20th Century. If you look at the demographics of the Republican Party in the 1950/60 and the 2010/20 you can see a significant difference. (Please note that you can see a related demographic change in the Democratic Party) These changes are most notable in the rise of extreme politics. The shift from seeing someone with a differing political/economic/social/religious view point not just as opponent, not just as the enemy, but as fundamentally evil. Something to be eradicated at all cost. My side, right or wrong, but my side.

One of the key issues with this phenomenon is that it has a strong tendency to concentrate concentrate “The True Believer” (See Eric Hofer) into one political party or movement. It also has a tendency to concentrate the Authoritarian-Autocrat personality into one political party or movement. When it is in one political party/movement we have a very explosive mixture. This is what I see happening with the Republican Party of the early 2020’s. I shall give some examples of what I think of as symptomatic and/or diagnostic events in my next posting.

An Now For Something Different

General, Politics
Foundation

Just to add to all the indicators of the coming/current “Sheldon Crisis” I thought I’d give you some rein to my own “SWAG” (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) on the coming election.

Possible Election Results

Absolute Worst: Trump Wins and the GOP flips the House and keeps the Senate

Worst: Trump Wins and the GOP keeps only the Senate

Very Bad: Trump Wins and the GOP loses both the House & keeps the Senate

Neutral: Trump loses and the GOP keeps the Senate

Good: Bernie Or Biden Wins and the GOP loses both the House and Senate

Very Good: Warren or Butigieg Wins and the GOP loses both the House and Senate

Best: Klobuchar Wins and the GOP loses both the House and Senate

Which of these results will happen I have no idea, as yet.

The Coming Crux

Politics, , , , ,
Foundation

In the lore of Psychohistory and Sheldon Crisis’ there come a time in every crisis commonly known as the Crux. Simply put the Crux’s is the point in the crisis where one and only one decision can be made and it will force all human history down the path desired by the Psychohistorians (or Robots). Unfortunately for us our crisis as another kind of crux. Ours will have basically two major paths, not one.

Sometime in the next few months the GOP in the Senate is going to have to decide if all there is, is support of Donald J Trump or to the Ideals of the United States. The Crux isn’t the conviction of Donald J Trump but rather the kind of trial the GOP controlled Senate will give him. If the trial is not up to the basic ideals of fairness of this country the American people will know it. The range of possibilities for the trial are shrinking as I write this.

We seem to be coming down to either having a Pro forma trial where no witnesses are called. Where we may not even have any open/closing statements made by the House & the President. All me may have is a reading of the Impeachment Resolution and then a call for the question (vote) and then 51+ Senators vote to “acquit” Donald J Trump.

The other Choice is to have a full trial with opening statements, the calling of witnesses with questioning by both parties, closing statements followed by the Senate voting on each article of impeachment and we will either have 67 votes to convict or we won’t.

In either case both the American people and the World will know just what kind of trial was held. An this will set this country, irrevocably on one of two paths to the future. Both paths will be hard to walk, but one will lead us to a day of new light, the other of to a day of darkness.

Your Lying Eyes

Politics, , ,
Foundation

An so our Sheldon crisis continues on. I do not believe what I am seeing take place. The MAGA in control of the Republican Party are certainly following party line as spoken by Donald Trump. In all of the hearings I have either watched or listened to not once have I heard any one challenge any single fact given. The best I have heard is that it was that the fact was hearsay. An when witnesses of fact testify about what was labeled by the MAGA members of the committee we hear nothing.

For those of you who are not familiar with the “Foundation” trilogy (written by Dr. Issac Asimov), a Sheldon Crisis is a socio-political crisis for seen by Hari Seldon that is totally unavoidable that is meant to drive the Foundation toward creating the 2nd Galactic Empire. In each of the crisis’ the freedom of action of the leaders of the Foundation, and their Opponent is progressively limited till one one course of action is available. When ever anyone attempts to deviate from the path things spring up to thwart them. Just like the people attempting to defined Pres. Trump.

In this Sheldon Crisis the single major thwarting item is Donald Trump himself. It is his steadfast refusal to acknowledge the facts of the case as currently presented and his holding to his beloved ‘sure fire’ tactic of “Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes?” that Is the largest roadblocks. That an his demand that he hear his supporters/defenders use the prescribed tactics and verbiage that seems to be preventing any effective defense.

Yesterday with the first hearings of the House Judiciary Committee we got are first, if weak, effective defense of Donald Trump. Unfortunately for Prof. Turley fact checkers were able to find video of him arguing the exact opposite back in 1998(?) in the Pres. Clinton impeachment. An while it is perfectly acceptable for a lawyer to argue both sides of an issue in a trial it does not stand a witness, who is testifying to his own personal beliefs and opinion, well to do so. It is perfectly acceptable for us to ask, “What does he really believe? An what does he stand for?”

What is even sadder is that not once did Prof. Turley ever say that the actions that Pres. Donald J Trump is accused of doing are or are not worthy of Impeachment. At the most all he said was that the process if flawed and going too fast. An even in this he did not address the issue that makes moving as fast as we are. The simple fact is if we don’t settle this issue before the next election and take action to insure that there is no foreign interference in the 2020 Presidential election there will be good reason to doubt the results, no mater what your political persuasions.

So our crisis progress with are freedom of action becoming narrower and narrower. Where will it end?

The Sheldon Crisis, part III

General, Philosophy, Politics, , , ,
Foundation

The Sheldon Crisis the U.S. is currently experiencing is going into it’s next faze today with the first of the Donald Trump Impeachment inquiry by the House Judiciary Committee. An it did not go well for anybody. While the supporters of Pres. Trump seem to have won on points this is only round one of the match. There are many more rounds to go and maybe a few more matches.

As a person who watched much of the Senate Watergate Hearings and the most all of the House Impeachment process Of Pres. Nixon. I also followed closely all the sordid process of the Clinton Impeachment and trial. I can say that today was not a good start. I hope the chairman and the House leadership rethink just how this process needs to work. Or, just maybe we all are missing something. This is more than just a legal process, there is a lot of politics involved.

Things just might get more interesting as time goes on. The House GOP seems to have won the day today with the witness standing his ground and refusing to say anything that is not in the testimony given in the Mueller Report. I just wonder if the GOP really want’s to go down this road to the Prerogative State. The use of Executive Privilege as done by the current Administration is quite expansive and would easily lead to no one who has anything to do with the Executive branch ever having to testify about anything to any body.

Let’s run a little thought experiment here. Let us suppose that no one who has any contact with the President, either directly or indirectly can not be forced by either the Congress or the Courts to give any testimony about anything the President may know, or could have know, or should have known or does not know. Ever! Now let us suppose the Executive Branch acts to confiscate all arms not in the possession of their party membership. An now let us suppose that it is taken to court and SCOTUS rules against the Administration and then the President orders the agency/persons charged to ignore the court order and they do? Now lets say the Court orders the arrest of those persons for criminal contempt and sends US Deputy Marshals to do it and these marshals are met with armed resistance by Federal security officers. Now what?

This is, of course a bad to worse case scenario. We don’t have to go this far to be in trouble. What would happen in the case of absolutely blatant corruption, like the Tea Pot Dome scandal but involving a siting Secretary. If the President could order all witness’ not to testify how could the House and Senate Impeach and Convict? How could you even try some one? Could not the President order the forensic witness and the investigators not to testify about their findings?

I think we can see where the unfettered use of any privilege can lead to. Privilege needs to be highly limited to keep it from being abused. We may live in the 2nd Guided Age and if we do it is paramount for the citizenry to flex it’s mussels and reign in the excesses of this age. The time to start is now. This election. Each an everyone of us needs to look at our Representatives, both House and Senate and see if they are putting Self or Party before the people and the country. To do that we need to stop listening to the Hate Mongers who want to tells that all are troubles are do to ‘THEM’. We must remember who we are and what we stand for. We are Americans and we Stand for more than just wealth, power, and prestige.