I would like to share a fun little thing I do to get a perspective on things. I also use it to show why I have such high hopes for the kids of today. So here we go….
First think about the year you were born. In my case that is 1951. Now think about 100 years earlier, again in my case that would be 1851. Now here comes the first hard part, think about how people lived in that year. Then think about how things were 100 years ago, 1923 and how people lived back the. This last part is easier to do because there is an excellent and very readable history “Only Yesterday’ by Fredrick Lewis Allen to help you out. Now just think about just how much things changed in that time. In 1851 the telegraph was brand new. There was no Republican Party. Most Americans lived either on farms or in small market towns, lest than a few thousand people. Slavery was still going strong in the south. Most people depended on walking to get anywhere, you were both luck and well off to be able to ride a mule or a horse and that for a long trip, like 20 miles to town. Finally a dollar a day was very good wages, especially if you were paired in gold coin.
Now let us look at 1923. The telegraph is being changed by the Telephone. Railroads are “The” way to travel long distance over land. Commercial Radio stations were springing up and in two years the live broadcast of a Presidential Inauguration will take place. The start of the age of the automobile and expanse of paved highways between towns. The idea that to become a medical doctor you need to have a college degree before medical school. The list seems to go on and on.
Now look at your life, in my case 1951 to 2023 and look at what you took for granted when you were in grade school or Middle school or High school. For me one easy way is to watch old movies of the 1960’s that I watched. Not just science fiction, spy dramas, crime dramas, even comedies. With Science fiction it can be an especially big giggle when they talk about the distant future like 2001: A Space Odyssey and Solent Green (set in 2022)., By the way I’m still waiting for my self driving flying car. Other movies like “Fantastic Voyage” and “ Satan Bug” can remind you of cutting edge technologies of the 1960s. In any case it will give you a wonderful feel for how we misestimated the changes we will see, both what we thought would happen and things we never saw coming.
Now to the whole point of this experiment. When ever you start getting down about the state of the world. When the “Doom” sayers get to you take a look and all we have accomplished in just your life time and even before. An have faith in the kids to over face what comes, to adapt and to over come.
This is going to be both a Dark and Brutally logical thought experiment. You have been warned.
This is just an experiment. It is not a prediction of what will be, nor even really possible to be. Only what could be. What we will be dealing with is just one possible scenario if Donald J. Trump looses in November 2020. An while this is not a prediction of the future it is as an honest “Threat Assessment“ I can formulate, given the past four years and the actions of both the Trump Administration, MAGA, and the current GOP leadership.
First some postulates:
Trump looses the election with the popular and electoral college
The election in the House and Senate while large is not the “Blue Tsunami”
That the actions in ‘Red” States to minimize election turn out results in incredibly long lines and/or waiting times that leads to many “incidents”.
The GOP/MAGA brings numerous court battles challenging the results in key “swing” states that last till early January 2021
Trump is able to either use the un-identified currently mobilized to put down the protests in several Blue cities like Portland Oregon to “protect” the White House before the inauguration.
Given the above postulates it is quite possible that Donald J. Trump just might refuse to accept the election results and refuses to leave the White House. The question is if the Federal Government would accept his position. Would the current AG leave office or would AG Barr attempt to stay in office and protect Trump. What about the acting heads of DHS and/or the FBI? What would they do? What could they do legally? What could be done against them if they try to stay in office past 20 January 2021?
Finally, just to add a little spice to the mix, where will the nuclear “Football” be in January 2021? If it is still in the West Wing what will the person caring it do? What will be his/her orders from the Pentagon dealing with Trump refusing to leave office?
The Sheldon Crisis the U.S. is currently experiencing is going into it’s next faze today with the first of the Donald Trump Impeachment inquiry by the House Judiciary Committee. An it did not go well for anybody. While the supporters of Pres. Trump seem to have won on points this is only round one of the match. There are many more rounds to go and maybe a few more matches.
As a person who watched much of the Senate Watergate Hearings and the most all of the House Impeachment process Of Pres. Nixon. I also followed closely all the sordid process of the Clinton Impeachment and trial. I can say that today was not a good start. I hope the chairman and the House leadership rethink just how this process needs to work. Or, just maybe we all are missing something. This is more than just a legal process, there is a lot of politics involved.
Things just might get more interesting as time goes on. The House GOP seems to have won the day today with the witness standing his ground and refusing to say anything that is not in the testimony given in the Mueller Report. I just wonder if the GOP really want’s to go down this road to the Prerogative State. The use of Executive Privilege as done by the current Administration is quite expansive and would easily lead to no one who has anything to do with the Executive branch ever having to testify about anything to any body.
Let’s run a little thought experiment here. Let us suppose that no one who has any contact with the President, either directly or indirectly can not be forced by either the Congress or the Courts to give any testimony about anything the President may know, or could have know, or should have known or does not know. Ever! Now let us suppose the Executive Branch acts to confiscate all arms not in the possession of their party membership. An now let us suppose that it is taken to court and SCOTUS rules against the Administration and then the President orders the agency/persons charged to ignore the court order and they do? Now lets say the Court orders the arrest of those persons for criminal contempt and sends US Deputy Marshals to do it and these marshals are met with armed resistance by Federal security officers. Now what?
This is, of course a bad to worse case scenario. We don’t have to go this far to be in trouble. What would happen in the case of absolutely blatant corruption, like the Tea Pot Dome scandal but involving a siting Secretary. If the President could order all witness’ not to testify how could the House and Senate Impeach and Convict? How could you even try some one? Could not the President order the forensic witness and the investigators not to testify about their findings?
I think we can see where the unfettered use of any privilege can lead to. Privilege needs to be highly limited to keep it from being abused. We may live in the 2nd Guided Age and if we do it is paramount for the citizenry to flex it’s mussels and reign in the excesses of this age. The time to start is now. This election. Each an everyone of us needs to look at our Representatives, both House and Senate and see if they are putting Self or Party before the people and the country. To do that we need to stop listening to the Hate Mongers who want to tells that all are troubles are do to ‘THEM’. We must remember who we are and what we stand for. We are Americans and we Stand for more than just wealth, power, and prestige.