Something we all should think about is just what will happen if the GQP/MAGA win in 2024. I will not go into what some liberals fear, but rather just what the Republican Party and its leadership have promised to deliver upon election to power.
First and foremost remember that unless the coming Republican Convention does as it did in the last election the GQP takes as its platform what ever Donald Trump says it is for. Nothing more Nothing less. The Republicans, as a political party only promises only to do as Trump directs. So forget what Republican Leaders like the Governors of Florida and Texas are doing now. Forget what they are saying in Congress. Pay no attention to what the blogs are saying. None of it maters. All that maters is what Donald Trump does.
So what can we expect? We can’t go by what he says as he really has a hard time delivering on what he promises. Like his wall on the southern border that Mexico would pay for. Or that Covid-19 would be just a memory before the election of 2020. In fact the only promises he does seem to follow thru on is when he promises to get ’even’ with someone. Now those are promises he seems to go out of his way to keep.
So we should be expecting the GQP to enable the next Republican President to take ”full direct control” of the DOJ, DOD, Internal Revenue Service, just to name a few. We should see the Democratic party both directly and indirectly attacked an emasculated to the maximum extent possible. We should see the State election officials also attacked with the aim of bringing them under the control of the GQP. This will includes every ’Purple’ and ’Blue’ state possible.
I would also expect to see as many of the people held responsible by Trump for his Impeachments to be brought up on as many criminal charges as possible. I also expect to see a total house cleaning of ’disloyal’ Republicans (aka RINOs) from the party. Also look for the aggrandizement of anyone Trump believes might be of use to him.
Finally look for a lot of infighting behind the scenes and under the table.
Today while listening to the ”Sisters in Law” podcast they were asked Why the GOP is not worried about the US defaulting on its debt? It is a good question and the Sisters in Law gave several good answers but I think they really missed the mark and I’d like to share my take on an answer.
There are several things to keep in mind when trying to answer this question and the most important is that there are some 271 GOP members of congress. That’s a lot of diverent views of the problem even not considering all the ’conservative’ mover and shakers exerting their influence. So with that in mind lets get started.
First, for the extreme MAGA wing of the party any hurt done is totally immaterial. All that maters is “Owning the Lib’s”. This is a two teared goal. First the Lib’s in the congress have to be seen to cave in to them. Next if the Libs do not cave in any and all harm can and will be all the Lib’s fault. This will most likely be expressed in the classic abuser ”Look What You Made Me Do!” If the Lib’s had just been good little boy’s and girls and done what the MAGA told them to do nothing would have happened.
Next, for the regular GOP members it is as simple as they just do not believe anything bad can happen to them. They are the ”Elite”, ”The Chosen One(s)”, the ones who never seem to get in trouble even when they are in the middle of it. A while this is mostly true for the top 5% (what I like to call the Upper/Uppers) they will, at most, have to curtail some of their staff. After all it is hard to tell the difference in how you live when your net worth goes from $5 Billion to $3 billion. Or million for that matter. Now it is much easier when your income goes from $100,000 to $60,000 or from $40,000 to nothing.
Finally, for the members of the GOP who do realize just what default can and will mean; they think that the political gain for them, both personally and party wise, fair out ways any suffering of the mass’s. Indeed, some of this group actually think they see ways to personally gain, both politically and financially. That they maybe mistaken never seems to cross their minds.
In closing please remember that this is just the top three answers to the question. Also, my dear reader, remember that anyone of the MAGA GOP can switch between any and all of these answers and can mix them anyway they want. Just remember we are in a political game of ’Chicken’ and that game can only end in two ways; Someone swerves or someone dies. Sometimes two someones.
It was back in 2016 that I first heard ”What ever Trump touches he destroys”. We are now well in to the second act of our ’Greek’ Tragedy. The first seen was, of course, the long battle for Speakership of the House where Rep. McCarthy publicly sold his soul for his dream of being the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Much ink has flowed over just what it means and what it will mean. I fully expect that there are many future Masters and Doctoral Thesis’ on the subject. For now we just get to live thru the ’live action’.
We are now coming to the end of the second seen of the Act, where we all await the much anticipated indictment(s) of Donald J Trump by Local, State, and Federal law enforcement. There are many questions to be asked in this seen. Like, who will be first? How many charges against how many people. Who will turn on who and who will stay loyal to whom. All I can say is that I expect everyone to be surprised by it all.
The last seen of the act will be taken up by all of the actions taken by both Trump and his supporters. Centerstage will, of course, be Trump himself, along with as many of the House MAGA caucus as can fit. Just be sure that Trump will manage to upstage everyone and everything.
We have seen in this act of the tragedy all of the damage ’caused’ by Trump to the Republican Party was mostly, if not entirely, inflicted not by the ’enemies’ of the GOP but by it’s ’so called friends’. What for now is called the MAGA Republicans. The likes of Rep. Jim Jordan and Rep. Matt Gates, just to name two, have done more to harm the GOP in the eyes of many of it’s fellow Americans than anything done by other political parties.
In the name of defending Donald Trump they have taken actions which many feel goes counter to what the GOP once stood for. How can the Republicans say they stand for ’Law and Order’ while attacking the same people who defended the Capital on 6Jan2021? Or when Georgia changes its laws so that D.A. will be subject to legislature instead of independent? An let us not forget being for the rights of the individual while taking the right to make their own medical decisions away from half of the population.
No, the principles of the Grand Old Party lie in ruins. Cast down by the ”Populist” insurgents of the ’Freedom Caucus’, ’Tea Party’, and MAGA. The true Rino’s are not those who still think of themselves as Conservatives/Republicans, but the followers of Trump. An if you think this current act was bloody bear knuckles, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Fifty years ago, yesterday, I voted for the first time. Ever since then I’ve celebrated and today is no different. What is different is I’m not just say ”Go Vote”. Today I’m saying ”Go Vote like the Nation depends on it.”
This time I’m truly worried for the Nation this time. The ’election deniers’, the ultra extremist MAGA who promise that if elected that Republicans will never loose another election have succeeded in scaring me.
So let me say this. Any candidate, for any office, who says the following does not deserve your vote.
The 2020 election was stollen.
I will not except the results where I do not win
That 1/6/21 was NOT an attempted Insurrection.
It is up to everyone who believes in the American Way to totally and completely shutdown this kind of talk and behavior. So please, if you do reject this kind of thought and behavior and have not yet voted, Go Vote!
As I promised in my last posting I’m now going to list some of the reasons I see an ongoing Sheldon Crisis.
The similarities of the the 1850’s and the fall of the American Wigs party and now.
The rise of religious back political action, that is the uses of religion to support political action.
The rise of accepted corruption in the body politic
I will tackle these in reverse order. Since the turn of the 21st century the acceptance by the electorate of corrupt dealings by people in the government, either elected, appointed, or Civil Service, has been becoming more and more pronounced till we end up electing Donald J. Trump as President. Then the powers that be totally ignoring it. An I’m not just talking about the Congress. I’m also talking about the electorate, and not just in the general election. The GOP voter had an entire Primary season to put Trump in the trash, but they didn’t. (see earlier posting on my thoughts on why they did this.) Even now, almost two full years after the end of the Trump administration we have stores coming out about self-dealing of high officials and family members with little or no reaction from the self same high ethics/morality touting conservatives. The last time this happened was in the Gilded Age.
Next is the use of ones religion to justify ones political action(s). Or rather the use of religious fervor to opt-in voters for political power. This has been going on for almost 50 years now to greater and greater effect. Now, please note I am NOT talking about acting or voting based on ones religious beliefs. Nothing can be better than following your religious moral/ethical teaching when voting. I would just like to share one of the earliest bible school teaching I ever got. ”The Devil Quotes Scripture.” When I first heard this someone had the good since to ask the teacher just what that meant. She replied that you can find something in the Scriptures to just doing just about anything. That’s why you need to read not the the passage but also what came before and what comes after. When we told to go look to see if we could find a scripture that would justify staying up past bed time, or only have desert for diner, low and be hold we found quite a few. (Unfortunately all our parents had been warned about the teaching in the class, so no joy there.) It is an unfortunate truth that when people start believing that their religion justifies their doing something they, themselves, would never stand for being done to them we come to the point of doing that which we hate.
An now to the final, and most important point. Also the hardest to really understand. This is because the politics of the USA in the decade before the Civil War is both complex and little written about. It is also fragmented. We have not only the collapse of the American Wigs party and the rise of the Republican party. We have the rise of the ’Nativist’ or ’American’ political movement. Add to that both sides of the Abolition movement justified their position with bible texts.
An that leads me to this final point, a Sheldon Crisis is not simple. It is Complex, Convoluted, Hidden and Obvious. An it is dynamic and always changing. That is why it is so hard to see the answer till the ’crux’ of the crisis is reached. A lot of people will see the answer, a lot won’t, and, unfortunately too many will think they see the answer and be mistaken. These last are the most dangerous.
Just read in “News & Guts” that the Gov. of Florida has signed a bill that will establish a special election crime unit to ‘end’ election fraud. This is a great unit, even before it is established the crimes it is to prevent are already almost non existent. I know of only two cases of actual election fraud in Florida in 2020 out of over 11 million voters. Given those numbers the election fraud rate would be 0.00001818%. A veritable crime wave? Nope.
But what the election police can do is keep all those people who shouldn’t be voting, but are, away from the polls. You know who I’m talking about. All those ‘not white’ people who just don’t know how to keep in their place. The ‘uppity’ ones who demand to be treated like all the ‘good’ people. By ‘good’ I mean all those who agree with what the MAGA is saying. That those who are at the top are, by their very position are “right, good, just”. Or if you like, the ‘Elect’.
Political Scientists, and Historians have seen this all before. It happens way to often in our history. It has happen in Russia in the 2000’s, it happened in Germany in the 1930’s. It has happen in the USA in the 1870’s. First you identify a ‘problem’ that really doesn’t exists and then you create a solution to fix it that lets you control the people. Since the 2020 election MAGA and it’s captive political party, the Republican, has been crying ‘wolf’ over election fraud.
They are telling us that it is ‘rampant’ in the nation. Their proof is that ‘election fraud’ is the only way to explain Donald J. Trump’s loss, even thought many Republicans won their elections. (This, by the way, is classic double speak.) So they now create a police force to eliminate the non existent crime of election fraud by apprehending the fraudsters.
An like any newly created unit the EP (election police) unit(s) will want to show they are doing their job by having a large arrest record. Thousands, ten’s of thousands can be arrested. Most, if not all will be let go, after the polls close, with only a few actually being charged and even few going to trial. An those who do go to trial, the ones who are not “The Right People” will get nice long prison sentences. Those that are will get nice, understanding suspended or public service sentences.
All I can say is I hope the electorate of Florida is paying attention and does the something about this come November.
For quite sometime now I’ve been hearing the people on the Media talking about how Donald Trump has/is destroying the Republican Party, conservative movement, etc. To my way of thanking this is not just wrong, but also bad for the country. Donald Trump and/or Trumpisum is not doing anything to the Conservative Movement, nor to the Republican Party. Donald Trump and Trumpisum is a symptom of what ales them, it is not the cause.
Everything that is happening to the GQP today has its roots back in the late 1960’s. It was then that liberal Republicans started migrating to the Democratic Party and conservative Democrats started migrating to the Republican Party. In the 1968 elections Richard (Tricky Dick) Nixon came up with his famous ‘Southern Strategy’ to woo the former Dixiecrats to vote republican. It is also when the unholy alliance between social conservatives and financial conservatives was truly formalized. Now in the 21st century we are seeing the results of what was started back then.
If you just do a little work you can see the seeds of all the ‘Great’ issues of today in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s. The thing to remember is Donald Trump is not smart enough, nor Machiavellian enough to have created what we are see. In fact he is just arrogant enough to both claim credit for and to bring it out into the day light for all to see. An just like the high fever lets us know we are truly sick, Donald Trump is letting us know just how much trouble our body politic is in.
Our body politic is no longer facing a quiet infection slowly destroying our democracy. No, the raging fever has broken out and we now know we are in deep trouble. An just like a high fever we must first take action to rid ourselves of the disease. We must not only take action to get rid of the symptoms, just like we take medicines to bring down a fever, we must also take medicines to rid us of the actual disease. An to do this we need to identify the infecting agents but also what is being infected. This is not easy, nor pleasant.
So just how do we identify the agent of infection in our Body Politic? I say lets get more transparency and more truth. I’d start with making the fundamental source of all funds coming to any political campaign be public. Next only natural people may fund any political campaign. (By the way I’m using natural person in the legal since of the words.) An I don’t mean just cash money, I mean anything of value. The next thing is to change are libel and slander laws to take in the new cyber media. An we also need to bring in the use of algorithms that either internally of unintentionally case harm liable for the harm they cause. By this I mean that the person or persons who knowingly or should have known that the algorithm they are using has, or would have, caused harm are liable for the damage caused.
I know the above is very complex and it will take a lot of work to get right but we have done this before (just look at the history of the telephone, radio, and tv) but we can do it. It will be done. The only question is what shape our nation will be in when it is done.
Over the past few weeks I’ve been following a fair number of discussions on why the Republican Party has not done an ‘autopsy’ on why they lost in 2020. In most of these discussions the continued faithful loyalty of the GOP rank and file is almost always touch upon. What is often totally ignored is just why the rank and file of the GOP are still loyal to Donald J. Trump. There are, undoubtedly many reasons for this but I would like to just touch on one that seems to being ignored.
What I will be talking about is the known reluctance of a Con-Artist victim to actually admit to the con. This phenomenon is well know to all those in law enforcement who’s job it is to track down and lock up the Con-artist. The reasons for their behavior is legion and I will not attempt to go into it here. What is important is the attitude of the victims that keeps them from admitting, even to themselves, that they have been conned. All that is important here is the phenomenon itself.
This disinclination to admit to being conned by Donald Trump is the starting point to understanding why so many GOP Rank and File are staying loyal to him. At some level they know that if they start looking for some other leader than Trump they will be starting down the road to admitting that they were conned by Trump and they are not yet ready for that. It is just too painful. It is also to shameful. We all know the old saying “You can not Cheat an honest man.” And, fundamentally, a con is offering the mark a way of cheating. In the case we are addressing here we are looking at getting something you have not really a right to.
There is no nice way to say this, it is not just possible. Donald J. Trump has offered the GOP something for nothing. The problem is TANSTAAFL (There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch) and at some level we all know this. The genius of Donald J. Trump is he offered something different to all the segments of the GOP. Each and every faction was offered what they most wanted, without having to pay for it. The White Supremists were told they could, no matter what the law said, do as they wish on all non-whites. He offered some the ability to take from the public coffers all they could manage. This list is both long and well known so I shan’t go on here. I will close with the most fundamental thing Trump gave the GOP rank and file the confirmation that “You are in the right! No matter what anyone else says.” He gave them the freedom from self doubt and questioning. He gave them permission to say “it is self evident that I’m right so I don’t have to explain.”
And there is the rub, eventually it will all come out. Eventually you will have to explain yourself. You will have to admit you were conned and admit you were being dishonest. Some people will not be able to do this, ever. Some will, but it will take time. What we, who recognized Donald J. Trump for what he is, have to do now is wait. Stand our ground. Be understanding of the MAGA but not give one inch in holding them responsible for what both Donald J. Trump did and what they did even though he told them they could. Eventually the lunch is paid for. We just need to be sure that it is paid for by those who eat it and not by us.
Once more we are diving into the dark and murky waters of the coming Presidential Elections. In this one we will be looking at just what might be facing Donald J. Trump once he has lost the election and is out of office. We will not concern ourselves with just how he is removed and just concern ourselves with just what he might be facing.
V.P. Biden wins the election decisively in both the popular vote and the electoral collage
The GOP is decisively defeated in both the House of Representatives and the Senate (the Democrats do not loose a single seat in the Senate and gain all possible tossup seats)
Donald J Trump does everything he can to confuse the election, including getting contested delegations of Electors from several states.
All of the ‘criminal’ investigations being conducted are investigating actual activities and actions that have taken place, and have available sufficient evidence to bring charges against Donald J Trump.
Trump knows and understands just exactly what the previous postulate means for both him.
The above is not the results of what some may call a “Blue Tsunami” but is still a crushing victory. While the Democrats do hold control of both houses of Congress they do not hold such a large majority as to be able to do what they want without any votes from the GOP. That is, they hold less that 291 seats in the House and less than 67 seats in the Senate. But their control is such that there is very little the GOP can do to stop any investigations into both the activities of the Trump administration or the actions of the Senate while they had control.
What would be facing the former Trump administration is an set of investigations that would make the investigations into the Harding Administration look like a child’s Tea Party. Just to name a few of the possible investigations:
The ICE “Detention” of minor undocumented imagrents
The Actions of the A.G. Barr in regards to investigations into activities of “Friends of Trump”
Was the Roger Stone Pardon given for unlawful reasons?
The actions both on and off the bench of all of the Judges appointed by Trump and confirmed by the Senate who were rated as “Unqualified” by the ABA
To add a little hate to the game I even tho the Republican defeat was not a “Blue Tsunami” it still would be quite devastating if few non-MAGA members of the party are left. Those GOP office holders would be faced with a very hard Choice in the coming elections. An some of them know enough of their political history to recognize just what may happen. The GOP may go the way of the Federalist Party and the Wig Party. To find this off they will have to take control back from the MAGA GOP and this will not be easy. They will most likely face the same problems the Democrats faced with their Dixiecrats staged their rebellion. An that will mean a very long time in the wildernesses with out any assured victory at the end.
It will also be painful for the Republicans because they are going to have to face a “Paradigm”shift in their thinking. They will have to stop thinking that “Victory isn’t everything, It is the Only Thing” and start thinking “What are our principles?” They are going to have to accept the idea of compromise and stop believing that the only position is “My way or the Highway.” They are going to have to accept the idea (With apologies to Oliver Cromwell:
“Please in the Name of GOD consider the Possibility that you are Mistaken.”
This is going to be both a Dark and Brutally logical thought experiment. You have been warned.
This is just an experiment. It is not a prediction of what will be, nor even really possible to be. Only what could be. What we will be dealing with is just one possible scenario if Donald J. Trump looses in November 2020. An while this is not a prediction of the future it is as an honest “Threat Assessment“ I can formulate, given the past four years and the actions of both the Trump Administration, MAGA, and the current GOP leadership.
First some postulates:
Trump looses the election with the popular and electoral college
The election in the House and Senate while large is not the “Blue Tsunami”
That the actions in ‘Red” States to minimize election turn out results in incredibly long lines and/or waiting times that leads to many “incidents”.
The GOP/MAGA brings numerous court battles challenging the results in key “swing” states that last till early January 2021
Trump is able to either use the un-identified currently mobilized to put down the protests in several Blue cities like Portland Oregon to “protect” the White House before the inauguration.
Given the above postulates it is quite possible that Donald J. Trump just might refuse to accept the election results and refuses to leave the White House. The question is if the Federal Government would accept his position. Would the current AG leave office or would AG Barr attempt to stay in office and protect Trump. What about the acting heads of DHS and/or the FBI? What would they do? What could they do legally? What could be done against them if they try to stay in office past 20 January 2021?
Finally, just to add a little spice to the mix, where will the nuclear “Football” be in January 2021? If it is still in the West Wing what will the person caring it do? What will be his/her orders from the Pentagon dealing with Trump refusing to leave office?