With the changing of the guard at the RNC and the placing of both MAGA and Trump loyalist in the top leadership we need to change both the symbol of the Republican Party and its nickname . I propose these two:
For the symbol:
And for the Nickname TOP (Trump’s Own Party). I particularly like TOP as it will appeal to not only Trumps ego but will also tell everyone just who is in charge. Even when Trump dies, they will still need to have a “Trump” leading the Party. At lest until the Trump line dies out, you know, like the “Claudio-Julians” at the end of the Roman Republic.
The symbol is a bit more shaky, but I still think it captures the spirit of the Party. A party run by women but with a male figurehead who takes all the credit. Just like an African Lions pride. The man just sits around all day, ready to chase away any other male. Screwing the all the women who do the actual work. And bragging to everyone how hard he works and how great everything he does, is. And all the females let him get away with it.
The only issue I see with these changes is that they might just be too truthful and on the mark. MAGA and the TOP don’t really feel comfortable with the truth being out where everyone can see it. They like the truth to be kept in a deep dark dungeon chained to the wall and starved.
I thought I’d be a nice guy and give the U.S. House of Representatives a chance to actually get itself in order by electing a new Speaker but it looks like it is not going to happen anytime soon. The problem, as I see it, for the GOP House caucus is both simple and complex. It is simple in that the fundamental issues are easy to identify and define. It is complex because there is no easy way to resolve conflicts between these issues.
The first issue I’m going to identify is the newest and least expected. The major the GOP caucus has in the house is microscopic only three votes over the 218 needed to elect a speaker and only 9 more that the Democrats. This tight a margin makes for difficult going for any political leader but it is especially difficult if the party is badly fractured like the Republicans in the House currently are.
This brings us to the next issue facing the GOP, it is a badly divided party and the Republicans has historically not dealt with competing political factions well. Ever since its founding in the 1850’s the Republican Party has usually had a dominant faction that controls the party. This dominate faction then makes deals with either the minority faction(s) in it’s own caucus or, failing that, the could find the votes they needed south of the Mason/Dixon line in the Democratic Party (note: I call this strategy the Dixiecrat strategy). The few time this strategy was either not used or did not work the Democrats could gain control. The Dixiecrat strategy stopped working once the new “Nixon Southern Strategy was adopted in the late 60’s early 70’s.
Still things could, and did, be made to work in the House but then came the Newt Gingrich Revolution and the concept of constant conflict as the way to get things done in the House. An while this strategy work a little in the house it did not play well with the Senate.
So now we come to that one of the biggest mistakes made, the idea that Politics can be successfully modeled using ‘Zero Sum’ game theory. This is a very seductive idea because it looks so simple. The problem is that you can end up worse off using a game theory that is incorrect than you can using the correct game theory a loose. Also most people who just have a casual understanding of Zero Sum game theory is that it has one deadly trap, there are actually three results possible. You can Win, you can loose and you can end in a draw. Even worse is that given the rules of the game you can end up where ending is a draw is the most likely result. Don’t believe me, talk with a ‘rated’ chess player.
An now to the last issue, seeing your opponent as the embodiment of everything you despise. This can be expressed as anything “D” touches we have to oppose. This is the death knell to getting anything done in a democratic polity where compromise is the name of the game.
So that is where the Republicans in the House find themselves. They have a small (45) subgroup (the Freedom Caucus) that is to the extreme right of the party and they see everything in a win/loose view. Worse yet they see it as if ‘they win’ I have to have lost. Next the majority of the Republicans in the House have very little to trade away to the Democrats and nothing that doesn’t mater much to their local base. So we end up with game after game after game in a draw, but what is worse is that the larger game, that game of running the country is about to be lost.
Next Posting: Thought experiment “What happens if the congress can not function for 6/12/18 months?”
It may seem strange but all of the liberal factions of the ”left” are, in many a strange way, benefiting from the Tumpian era of politics. Not to say that the Trumpian era did good things, no. What I’m saying is that the Libs can learn a lot from what has happened, is happening, and will continue to happen.
The time period I am calling the Trumpian era does not start back in 2016, it started back in the mid 1960s. What I mean is that the seeds that came to fruit in the Trump years were started to be planted with the formulation of what is called ”The Southern Strategy”. It continued thru the Reagan years and the Gingrich revolution till Trump and todays GQP/MAGA. It started with the equal rights movement that was to deny a fundamental right of all white men. That no mater how lowly you position was in the social/economic world there was someone who you could treat just as bad, if not worse, than you thought you’d been treated. That you, as a white male was still a member of the upper tier of society.
So just what did they do? It was not one thing nor was it a well thought out strategic plan. Rather it was a coming together of a conglomeration of ideas and actions over the years. It started with coming up with methods of weening away White Southerners from the democratic party by embracing any and all opposition to expanding voting rights to non-white people. It then continued with breathing new life into the traditional fear and hatred of those immigrants who came after ”my” ancestors immigrated to the USA. The classic ”We are Good, They are Bad” trope. All the while ranting about it is all the ”Liberal Courts” fault and working behind the scenes to load the courts with persons whose political philosophy matched the most extreme conservative view.
Next came the idea that ”Conservatives” were and are the “VICTIMS”. Just victims of what is never made clear. In fact to make clear just how and of what they are victims is vigorously suppressed. All the while decrying the victim hood of the poor, immigrants, non-white, the women, you get the point. Decrying and putting down anyone who tries to present hard facts/data/evidence of persecution of a group. The cry of ”We are the true victims here, not ‘those’ people.” Until the Trump era this was not easy to do but Donald Trump has shown how to do it. Just cry out that ”I am the Retribution for all the wrongs done by the _______ to you.” No need to say how you were wronged. How you were victimized. Now all you need to do is cry out you are getting ”retribution” and no one can challenge your claim to being the victim.
On a personal note: Have you noticed that often as not the people who cry out how they are the Victim(s) here are the same people who told who ever would listen that this was just the ”Culture of Victimhood” and they should just pull themselves up by the bootstraps just like ”My ancestors did.”?
So just what are the Liberals learning from all this? First, and for most, the use of hard facts with logical/reasonable arguments is not going to work in this debate. At lest when dealing with the hard core GQP. It needs to be aimed at the sizable middle who can and will be open to hearing what is said. We must accept the lamentable fact that reason will have no effect on the GQP. That they are so deeply invested in they ideas of the GQP that to question any of it’s dogma is an anathema. That the liberal have to accept that someone will reject out of hand a reasoned argument is very hard to take. But take it we must and we need to stop trying to make it work. They need to focus on what can and does work. Humor and ridicule, and this will not be easy to do. But it can be done. It is being done. An it must continue to be done.
Today while listening to the ”Sisters in Law” podcast they were asked Why the GOP is not worried about the US defaulting on its debt? It is a good question and the Sisters in Law gave several good answers but I think they really missed the mark and I’d like to share my take on an answer.
There are several things to keep in mind when trying to answer this question and the most important is that there are some 271 GOP members of congress. That’s a lot of diverent views of the problem even not considering all the ’conservative’ mover and shakers exerting their influence. So with that in mind lets get started.
First, for the extreme MAGA wing of the party any hurt done is totally immaterial. All that maters is “Owning the Lib’s”. This is a two teared goal. First the Lib’s in the congress have to be seen to cave in to them. Next if the Libs do not cave in any and all harm can and will be all the Lib’s fault. This will most likely be expressed in the classic abuser ”Look What You Made Me Do!” If the Lib’s had just been good little boy’s and girls and done what the MAGA told them to do nothing would have happened.
Next, for the regular GOP members it is as simple as they just do not believe anything bad can happen to them. They are the ”Elite”, ”The Chosen One(s)”, the ones who never seem to get in trouble even when they are in the middle of it. A while this is mostly true for the top 5% (what I like to call the Upper/Uppers) they will, at most, have to curtail some of their staff. After all it is hard to tell the difference in how you live when your net worth goes from $5 Billion to $3 billion. Or million for that matter. Now it is much easier when your income goes from $100,000 to $60,000 or from $40,000 to nothing.
Finally, for the members of the GOP who do realize just what default can and will mean; they think that the political gain for them, both personally and party wise, fair out ways any suffering of the mass’s. Indeed, some of this group actually think they see ways to personally gain, both politically and financially. That they maybe mistaken never seems to cross their minds.
In closing please remember that this is just the top three answers to the question. Also, my dear reader, remember that anyone of the MAGA GOP can switch between any and all of these answers and can mix them anyway they want. Just remember we are in a political game of ’Chicken’ and that game can only end in two ways; Someone swerves or someone dies. Sometimes two someones.
It was back in 2016 that I first heard ”What ever Trump touches he destroys”. We are now well in to the second act of our ’Greek’ Tragedy. The first seen was, of course, the long battle for Speakership of the House where Rep. McCarthy publicly sold his soul for his dream of being the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Much ink has flowed over just what it means and what it will mean. I fully expect that there are many future Masters and Doctoral Thesis’ on the subject. For now we just get to live thru the ’live action’.
We are now coming to the end of the second seen of the Act, where we all await the much anticipated indictment(s) of Donald J Trump by Local, State, and Federal law enforcement. There are many questions to be asked in this seen. Like, who will be first? How many charges against how many people. Who will turn on who and who will stay loyal to whom. All I can say is that I expect everyone to be surprised by it all.
The last seen of the act will be taken up by all of the actions taken by both Trump and his supporters. Centerstage will, of course, be Trump himself, along with as many of the House MAGA caucus as can fit. Just be sure that Trump will manage to upstage everyone and everything.
We have seen in this act of the tragedy all of the damage ’caused’ by Trump to the Republican Party was mostly, if not entirely, inflicted not by the ’enemies’ of the GOP but by it’s ’so called friends’. What for now is called the MAGA Republicans. The likes of Rep. Jim Jordan and Rep. Matt Gates, just to name two, have done more to harm the GOP in the eyes of many of it’s fellow Americans than anything done by other political parties.
In the name of defending Donald Trump they have taken actions which many feel goes counter to what the GOP once stood for. How can the Republicans say they stand for ’Law and Order’ while attacking the same people who defended the Capital on 6Jan2021? Or when Georgia changes its laws so that D.A. will be subject to legislature instead of independent? An let us not forget being for the rights of the individual while taking the right to make their own medical decisions away from half of the population.
No, the principles of the Grand Old Party lie in ruins. Cast down by the ”Populist” insurgents of the ’Freedom Caucus’, ’Tea Party’, and MAGA. The true Rino’s are not those who still think of themselves as Conservatives/Republicans, but the followers of Trump. An if you think this current act was bloody bear knuckles, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
For over 60 years now what we now call the ”Conservative Movement” has been chasing the ’Car’ of what they thought of as the Ultra Left Wing Liberals control of the courts. They didn’t have much luck in the 60’s with their voters split between the two major parties but with the advent of the ’Southern Strategy’ in ’69 by the Nixon campaign things have changed. An with the ferocious reaction to the Obama Presidency and mind blowing backlash of the Trump administration they have reached their goal. They have gained effective control of the Republican Party.
But like the dog chasing a car, they really have no clear idea what to do next. We hear lots of generalities like ”Tough on Crime” and ”Secure the Border”, and the traditional favorite “Balance the Budget”. We have heard these so many time before but once they GOP is in control nothing ever seems to happen. An I have a theory why this is.
The hypothesis is that they are just ”platitudes” to be said. The theory is that they are not meant to mean anything specific but rather they are indented to mean what ever the listener want’s it to mean. Lets just take one, ”Tough on Crime” as an example. To on audience it can mean doing something about the ”Evil” banks, while to someone else it is doing something about the street gangs or doing something to end the mass shooting in schools. What ”Tough on Crime” really means is getting though on things I don’t like. An each of these GOP platitudes is like this. They don’t mean anything and they mean everything. So that is the problem the GOP will be facing soon.
An like the dog who has caught the car the GOP is now facing the problem of ”What Now?” But unlike the dog the GOP has some clear options. They can do what the part of their base scares them the most. An hear I am talking about those who are most violent and hard to control. Or they can do what the most monied base wants. Or they can do what they think will get them the most power, either personal or as a group. The next few years will so just what the GOP leadership decides to do.
As I promised in my last posting I’m now going to list some of the reasons I see an ongoing Sheldon Crisis.
The similarities of the the 1850’s and the fall of the American Wigs party and now.
The rise of religious back political action, that is the uses of religion to support political action.
The rise of accepted corruption in the body politic
I will tackle these in reverse order. Since the turn of the 21st century the acceptance by the electorate of corrupt dealings by people in the government, either elected, appointed, or Civil Service, has been becoming more and more pronounced till we end up electing Donald J. Trump as President. Then the powers that be totally ignoring it. An I’m not just talking about the Congress. I’m also talking about the electorate, and not just in the general election. The GOP voter had an entire Primary season to put Trump in the trash, but they didn’t. (see earlier posting on my thoughts on why they did this.) Even now, almost two full years after the end of the Trump administration we have stores coming out about self-dealing of high officials and family members with little or no reaction from the self same high ethics/morality touting conservatives. The last time this happened was in the Gilded Age.
Next is the use of ones religion to justify ones political action(s). Or rather the use of religious fervor to opt-in voters for political power. This has been going on for almost 50 years now to greater and greater effect. Now, please note I am NOT talking about acting or voting based on ones religious beliefs. Nothing can be better than following your religious moral/ethical teaching when voting. I would just like to share one of the earliest bible school teaching I ever got. ”The Devil Quotes Scripture.” When I first heard this someone had the good since to ask the teacher just what that meant. She replied that you can find something in the Scriptures to just doing just about anything. That’s why you need to read not the the passage but also what came before and what comes after. When we told to go look to see if we could find a scripture that would justify staying up past bed time, or only have desert for diner, low and be hold we found quite a few. (Unfortunately all our parents had been warned about the teaching in the class, so no joy there.) It is an unfortunate truth that when people start believing that their religion justifies their doing something they, themselves, would never stand for being done to them we come to the point of doing that which we hate.
An now to the final, and most important point. Also the hardest to really understand. This is because the politics of the USA in the decade before the Civil War is both complex and little written about. It is also fragmented. We have not only the collapse of the American Wigs party and the rise of the Republican party. We have the rise of the ’Nativist’ or ’American’ political movement. Add to that both sides of the Abolition movement justified their position with bible texts.
An that leads me to this final point, a Sheldon Crisis is not simple. It is Complex, Convoluted, Hidden and Obvious. An it is dynamic and always changing. That is why it is so hard to see the answer till the ’crux’ of the crisis is reached. A lot of people will see the answer, a lot won’t, and, unfortunately too many will think they see the answer and be mistaken. These last are the most dangerous.
With the 2022 primaries true and well started I’d like to stop and take note of the ”Sheldon” crisis we are in. I know I’ve been talking about a crisis for several years now and before I go on, I’d like to point out some things usually over looked when talking about ”Sheldon” Crisis’. First, the ”Foundation” novels never really give us a good time frame for just how long a ”Sheldon” crisis takes to start and end. Shoot, we never get a good idea of how long it takes to travel from Terminus to Trator. Weeks, months? No clue, just that it is not too long for the people making the trip.
Also we are never told just what a ”Sheldon” crisis is. All we know is that it is a phenomenon of ”Psycohistory” a science that was invented by the mathematician Hari Sheldon. We are also told that ”Psyohistory” can predict the actions of very large bodies of humans (very large being the populations of entire planets if not multiple planets). So just how am I using the phase ”Sheldon” Crisis? What do I mean by it.
Simple put I’m talking about the phenomenon of a Sociopolitical science where a sudden, often violent events occur that mark a distinct change in a socialites social, political, and/or economic state. a good example is what happened between 1914 and 1945. Yes that is 31 years. But in the history of people and nations it is shorter than a blink of the eye. So live with it. I will go on from there.
What I’m looking at today is the possible death of the Republican Party that came into being in the last half of the 20th Century. If you look at the demographics of the Republican Party in the 1950/60 and the 2010/20 you can see a significant difference. (Please note that you can see a related demographic change in the Democratic Party) These changes are most notable in the rise of extreme politics. The shift from seeing someone with a differing political/economic/social/religious view point not just as opponent, not just as the enemy, but as fundamentally evil. Something to be eradicated at all cost. My side, right or wrong, but my side.
One of the key issues with this phenomenon is that it has a strong tendency to concentrate concentrate “The True Believer” (See Eric Hofer) into one political party or movement. It also has a tendency to concentrate the Authoritarian-Autocrat personality into one political party or movement. When it is in one political party/movement we have a very explosive mixture. This is what I see happening with the Republican Party of the early 2020’s. I shall give some examples of what I think of as symptomatic and/or diagnostic events in my next posting.
One of the great lies in the debate over legal abortion is the ”Right” saying they are the side of “Right to Life”. I’ve done a little research on just where this mime came from and unfortunately I’ve come up with too many answers to say for sure. What I can say for sure is that it is only half true. They really don’t care about the life the fetus gets, only that it gets to live. Once Born, most, if not all, Right to Lifers could care less about the newborn.
In fact they really could care less about the unborn child. To confirm this just look at all of the programs the Right to Lifers, or Conservative Movement, GOP, and/or Republicans support that provide pre-natal care. I’ll wait for you to list them (please do in the comments). ……….. Done? As for myself I could find none. zip, nadda, none. Not to be too brutal but it seems that the babies involved are of little importance to all of the political leadership. Quite Trumpian.
So, what is the Republican who thinks of themselves as apposing abortion on moral grounds. And who does care about the newborn to do? I’d recommend you start promoting programs for pre-natal care. For newborn care. For child care. For very good schools. An this should be for all children, no means testing, no testing on the parents. Any Takes Out There?
Just read in “News & Guts” that the Gov. of Florida has signed a bill that will establish a special election crime unit to ‘end’ election fraud. This is a great unit, even before it is established the crimes it is to prevent are already almost non existent. I know of only two cases of actual election fraud in Florida in 2020 out of over 11 million voters. Given those numbers the election fraud rate would be 0.00001818%. A veritable crime wave? Nope.
But what the election police can do is keep all those people who shouldn’t be voting, but are, away from the polls. You know who I’m talking about. All those ‘not white’ people who just don’t know how to keep in their place. The ‘uppity’ ones who demand to be treated like all the ‘good’ people. By ‘good’ I mean all those who agree with what the MAGA is saying. That those who are at the top are, by their very position are “right, good, just”. Or if you like, the ‘Elect’.
Political Scientists, and Historians have seen this all before. It happens way to often in our history. It has happen in Russia in the 2000’s, it happened in Germany in the 1930’s. It has happen in the USA in the 1870’s. First you identify a ‘problem’ that really doesn’t exists and then you create a solution to fix it that lets you control the people. Since the 2020 election MAGA and it’s captive political party, the Republican, has been crying ‘wolf’ over election fraud.
They are telling us that it is ‘rampant’ in the nation. Their proof is that ‘election fraud’ is the only way to explain Donald J. Trump’s loss, even thought many Republicans won their elections. (This, by the way, is classic double speak.) So they now create a police force to eliminate the non existent crime of election fraud by apprehending the fraudsters.
An like any newly created unit the EP (election police) unit(s) will want to show they are doing their job by having a large arrest record. Thousands, ten’s of thousands can be arrested. Most, if not all will be let go, after the polls close, with only a few actually being charged and even few going to trial. An those who do go to trial, the ones who are not “The Right People” will get nice long prison sentences. Those that are will get nice, understanding suspended or public service sentences.
All I can say is I hope the electorate of Florida is paying attention and does the something about this come November.
