Note to reader:
I have taken this long to write about the “Bad” polling numbers of the Biden 2024 campaign just to be sure it is not my fundamental “contrarian” nature exerting itself. I am now reasonably sure it isn’t.
To start things off, to all those out there who are sure of the inevitable victory of Donald J Trump in the November election I would just like to remind you of 2016’s election and the expected ending of President Hillary Clinton’s second term. No one who was not working in the 2016 presidential elections was more surprised and aghast than me that night when Hillary gave her concession speech. The numbers thru almost all of the campaign should Hillary winning hands down. Trump was a joke! There just was no way he could win. But he did. And now, in 2024 we are living thru all that means.
For me it meant, among many many other things, taking a hard hard look at just what and how political polling is taken, analyzed, and reported in the early 21st century. After eight years I’m still in a quandary and still working out just what is going on. The one thing I’m reasonable sure of is that it is not telling us what we think it is telling us and we have a lot of work ahead of us.
So, just why am I saying “Bad Numbers” are good. It is quite simple. Motivation of the electorate. It has been a long standing principle (over 50 years now) that high voter turnout helps the “Liberal” aka Democratic candidate(s). Back in 2016 I was quite worried that the independent and/or moderate voter turn out in swing states should be low, and they were. Very low. This has been shown in Political Science elections studies to be greatly influenced by the idea that Hillary was a shoe-in. That their vote wasn’t needed. Etc. They were wrong.
In 2020 this same electorate was motivated to get out and vote. Again, studies have demonstrated the validity of this, even when actual voter turn out was expected to be low do to the pandemic a respectable number of the independent voter was quite noticeable and is often given credit for Trump’s defeat.
The 2024 election is promising to be anything but nice. Anything but a sure thing. Not for Pers. Biden and not for Donald Trump (no mater what the MAGA machine says). A bad numbers along with the new campaign being started by the Liberals and Democrats it should make the independents and casual Demographic voters realize that there vote is vital. They will get out and vote.
That is what I think, now I get to wait and see if I’m right.