The Tail of Three Outcomes

U.S. Capital

With the Midterm Elections well into the Primaries I thought it would be nice to talk about the four possible outcome. They are, simply put,

  1. No significant change in either chambers
  2. The Republicans gain control of both the House and the Senate
  3. The Democrats expand their control of both the House and the Senate
  4. Control of one chamber is controlled by each party

I’ll be starting with number 2 because this is the expected (traditional) historical results. If we go by history the GOP will pick-up enough seats to be the majority party they need to pick-up 8 seats and this is quite doable given the past 30+ years of midterm elections. The problem with only getting 13 seats is this would give the GOP 218 to the Democrats 216, a majority of only two seats. History shows the GOP picking up something over 12 seats, but that is still a very razor thin majority. An with just how restive the “Freedom Caucus” this could make for the election of a very weak Speaker.

If the ”Freedom Caucus” does flex its mussel in the election of the Speaker it could very well encourage other caucus’ in the GOP to also make demands of House leadership. It is even conceivable for the House to be tied up trying to elect a Speaker. It has happen before when the Congress was highly partisan (See the political history of the 1850’s). This kind of battle could be very bad for the survival of the Republican Party.

As far as the Senate goes, the GOP just needs to pick up one seat and historically that is quite possible. Unfortunately to be filibuster proof they need to pick up ten seats, much more unlikely to happen. This will then force the Senate Majority leader (Sen. McConnell) to either live with what the GOP has done to the last two Democratic Administrations and have to deal with the Democrats stoping anything that they don’t like with the Filibustered. Or just getting rid of the Filibuster. Neither option is very palatable.

Now lets look at option 1, with all that has happened since the start of the primaries; 1/6 hearings, the Dobs decision, the Secret Service scandal to name just three, this option has become much more likely. With little change in just what is happening in D.C. from the last two years. The President and Democrats trying to get things done and the GOP in the Senate doing everything in their power to prevent anything from happening.

Now, lets look at number 4, the worst of the worst when it comes to making any rational forecasts. This is because what actually happens depends on too many variables. The variable is how control breaks. How controls what: House controlled by the GOP and the Senate controlled by the Dems? Or the other way around? An how strong is the control? These are waters I will decline to swim in for now. Although I would find it fun, and terrifying to live; so ”no thank you“.

An finally let us go on to number 3, the MAGA-GOP’s worst nightmare and my personal favorite. An not because I’m a Democrat, I am, but because it is the prediction I have made do to my reading of history. Like option 1, option 3 has become much more likely do to events that have taken place and continue to take place during this year. As stated before Mid-terms Send tend to be rather sedate and boring elections. A rest after the noise and fury of the Presidential election two years earlier. But this time the noise and fury has not died down. If anything it is ramping up. We are looking forward to more exciting things from the 1/6 (or as it seems to now to be called the ’Insurrection’) committee this September. Along with a large number of very poor GOP candidates (lots of ’MAGA’ faithful) and very divisive case being heard by SCOTUS before the election. An let us not forget the ’ham handed’ act of the GOP in the Senate like what just happen with the ’Vet’ bill.

As I said above, number 3 is my personal favorite because of my reading of history. I think we are living threw the end of one political party, the Republicans, and the beginnings of a new party. I shall refrain form trying to give it a name. in any case we just have to wait and see what happens.