With the eminent start of early voting I think it is a good day to think about both the election of 2022 and 2024. Let me give some of the reasons I feel it is quite possible for the GOP not to win control of the Senate.
First and foremost Senate election are statewide so gerrymandering districts has no effect and that means primaries don’t decide who will win in the general election. You have to have a candidate who can attract voters out side of the parties base. This is hard to do with the control of the local party apparatus in the control of Trump/MAGA/Q supporters.
The next thing is to look at how much time and interest is being generated about the very local elections. MAGA/Trump/Q blessed candidates are running for a lot of local offices, especially offices that control/run elections. This has been taken notice of and a remarkable amount of effort is going into these local elections. It should be noted that these early, local elections often have very small turnout, in the low 20% all too often. An while that means they are decided by a very small vote it also means that it doesn’t take very many new voters to change the election. That means a relatively small number of none MAGA/TRUMP/GOP voters can make a big difference.
An this bearings me to the next point. The GOP is shrinking. The number of registered GOP voters is getting small. In many cases in actual numbers and not just a percentage. An don’t think the GOP leadership hasn’t taken notice of this. It just maybe one of the reasons the state GOP parties have been doing so much to limit who can and/or will vote. If they thought that the parties appeal was growing and the party was gaining voters they would be much more likely to make voting easier. Another problem facing the GOP is the number of registered Republicans who are totally disenchanted with the way the party is going. There is no easy way to measure this number, especially because of the retaliations inflicted on those that go public. But they are there and their number just maybe significant.
So the key is going to be the candidates. All the non-Republicans have to do is nominate candidates that accentuate the difference between the MAGA/Trump/Q Republican candidates and themselves.
Now lets look at the House Races. Not nearly as easy to define or categorize. Gerrymandering can and does have a significant effect on house elections. But here is the problem facing the GOP in all most all of the House elections. Just because you are a “registered” republican doesn’t mean you will vote for any Republican. In some districts, even gerrymandered districts, a few people will not vote by party affiliation. Also if the Republican candidate is a devout MAGA Republican they will have a harder time attracting independent voters much less Democratic voters.
The worst thing to happen in ‘sure win’ republican districts is for the non-base republicans to ‘stay home’ and for the independent and democratic voters to come out in force. An the state Republican parties, where they are in control of the state, seem to be bound and determined to do what ever they can to upset the non-MAGA base of the Republican Party.
So that’s all for now. Something to watch in the coming months.
NOTE: This was mostly written before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.
The time has come that we must accept that the nickname of the Republican Party, “Grand Old Party”, is no longer applicable . It should now be known as “Trump’s Own(ed) Party”. I don’t say this lightly. Nor do I contend that this is primarily the results of the growth of the MAGA movement in the party. I say this mostly because of what has happened the last two and a half months. From the insurrectionist attack on the Capitol, to the failure of a majority of both House and Senate Republicans to act responsibly and reject the attempts invalidate the lawful election results. To the failure of all but seven Republican Senators to vote for Trump’s conviction in his 2nd impeachment trial. To the blatant two-faced actions of Senate Minority Leader McConnell in his speech condemning President Trump on the Senate floor and his statement that he would support Donald J. Trump in 2022 if he was the Republican nominee.
The reason why I think we should call the Republican Party the “T.O.P.” is that:
1)The effort of several State Republican Parties to censure those elected party members for their actions in aforementioned impeachment.
2) The public statements of both House and Senate members of the Republican Party finding nothing wrong with the actions of the mob on Jan 6th.
3) The effort to either stop completely, or at least make totally impotent, the proposed independent commission to investigate just what happened on 6 January.
4) And let us not forget the numerous trips down to Florida by elected and non-elected members of the Republican Party for ‘Photo-Ops’ with Donald J. Trump.
5) And finally, and most complex, the fight between the National Republican Party and Donald J. Trump over the use of his, Trump’s, image and name. And then his counter punch stating that his, Trump’s, supporters should stop giving to the National Republican Party and instead send their donations to his, Trump’s, private PAC. The National Republican Party has asked the Trump Organization to host a major fundraiser at Mar-a-Logo.
I fully expect to see the complete and total capitulation of the leadership of the Republican Party to both the Trump Organization and to Donald J. Trump in the next year. Therefor we should be calling the Republicans by what they truly are: Trump’s Own(ed) Party or the TOP.
Hypothesis: Donald Trump has Turned the GOP in to a mafia organization.
As anyone who has followed the Trump Administration and read just a few of the ‘tell all’ books knows it has been said a time or two that it is run like a ‘Mob Family’. Not sure if they mean like a real mafia organization or just like our TV/Movies version. In any case the most recent action(s) of the GOP in the House I think it is safe to say that the House members of the GOP think it is. Further more they seem to be running their caucus like it too.
This is not something new. The GOP, all of it, has been on this road for sometime now. I submit it can be traced back to 1990’s and the “Contract on America” and the start of a much more vigorous control of the GOP Congressional Causes. It started to take it’s current form with the 2010 elections and the near absolute control of many of the state houses by GOP super majorities. With these super majorities in place the GOP was able to redraw congressional districts to favor the GOP. Good old guided age gerrymandering. With these new districts in place it became an assured thing that the only thing a GOP incumbent needed to fear was being primaried by someone to the ‘Right’ of them.
The primary challenger doesn’t have to be really more to the right of the incumbent, he just has to make the incumbent look like he is to the ‘left’ of him/her. With the way the congress worked in the teens this was quite easy to do. All the challenger has to do is show that the incumbent has ‘compromised’ with the ‘left’ (read that Democrats) or worse yet, voted with them when the caucus didn’t. This means that the House GOP Wip has a great deal of clout to swing. All he has to do is walk over to the congress person in question and say in a quite voice “Nice little district you have here. Same if you loose it.”
Other things have also come about. Like ‘out of town’ talent ($$$$$) can now be easily and quietly brought in. With the creation of ‘fake news’ and the creation of tailor made new reporting and the end of the fairness doctrine it is very easy to down any incumbent. Add into the the open acceptance of ‘transactional politics’ (I call it “Zero Sum” politics) where if your side doesn’t get everything it demands then it has lost and you have the makes of our current situation.
So how does this lead to Pres. Trump turning the GOP Mafia type organization? haven’t I just shown it was already been turned into one? Well, not really. I’ve shown all of the elements/components needed to make a mafia were present but it was missing one element. It needs a person ready willing and able to be the ‘Boss’. Sure the GOP had many many people wanting to be the Boss, but none of them had what it takes to do it. Donald Trump did and does. I submit that was missing was the way Donald Trump communicates to the ‘base’. Donald Trump has many faults but not being able to size up his mark. An make no mistake his was the GOP, not the American people. He doesn’t give a tinkers dam about the American people. He doesn’t care about the GOP except that it is a tool for gaining what he wants. Don’t ask me what he wants, I don’t know, but i am afraid we are soon to find out.