Back in 2015 I wrote a post here called “Acceptable Casualty Rate” where I talked about why we have a problem with Guns. Today I am not going to be so detached…..You Have Been Warned.
With the latest mass shooting in a school I am, once more hearing two things repeatedly said: ”How/Why did this happen?” And ”How can this be prevented?” In the first case the answer is simple ”It’s what we want.” The second is just as bad ”We Cann’t. Get used to it.”
Why do I say we want it is simple. Just look at the length of time we have been having mass shooting and just what has been done. Little or nothing is being done and it is happening because two super PACs are perfectly happy with the situation. Both the Gun manufactures and their totally captive NRA see no reason to change. The manufactures don’t want change because any change will impact negatively their profits. The NRA because it would decrease their Power and influence.
So we are left with ’thoughts and prayers’ and little else. What they don’t tell you is we MUST live with it because they find the casualty rate quite acceptable. But ask yourself this ”Why do they find it Acceptable?” To be brutal the answer is simple, they are not the ones suffering the casualties.
It is something anyone who studies military history learns early on is that when you are not the one who has to suffer the casualties the highest casualties quickly become acceptable. Now I know some of you will disagree but just go study some wars (WWI is a good place to start) and look just how far back from the front lines the people who decided to fight the battle were. In any-case it is my view that if the families of the heads of all the Gun Manufactures and the NRA were among the people who are put at risk things would change.
Not going to happen.
So what happens now? Until the general electorate is ready to make our government (all three branches, mind you) be more afraid of us than they are of the the Gun PACS nothing will change. So get it in your head this single thought:
It was back in 2016 that I first heard ”What ever Trump touches he destroys”. We are now well in to the second act of our ’Greek’ Tragedy. The first seen was, of course, the long battle for Speakership of the House where Rep. McCarthy publicly sold his soul for his dream of being the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Much ink has flowed over just what it means and what it will mean. I fully expect that there are many future Masters and Doctoral Thesis’ on the subject. For now we just get to live thru the ’live action’.
We are now coming to the end of the second seen of the Act, where we all await the much anticipated indictment(s) of Donald J Trump by Local, State, and Federal law enforcement. There are many questions to be asked in this seen. Like, who will be first? How many charges against how many people. Who will turn on who and who will stay loyal to whom. All I can say is that I expect everyone to be surprised by it all.
The last seen of the act will be taken up by all of the actions taken by both Trump and his supporters. Centerstage will, of course, be Trump himself, along with as many of the House MAGA caucus as can fit. Just be sure that Trump will manage to upstage everyone and everything.
We have seen in this act of the tragedy all of the damage ’caused’ by Trump to the Republican Party was mostly, if not entirely, inflicted not by the ’enemies’ of the GOP but by it’s ’so called friends’. What for now is called the MAGA Republicans. The likes of Rep. Jim Jordan and Rep. Matt Gates, just to name two, have done more to harm the GOP in the eyes of many of it’s fellow Americans than anything done by other political parties.
In the name of defending Donald Trump they have taken actions which many feel goes counter to what the GOP once stood for. How can the Republicans say they stand for ’Law and Order’ while attacking the same people who defended the Capital on 6Jan2021? Or when Georgia changes its laws so that D.A. will be subject to legislature instead of independent? An let us not forget being for the rights of the individual while taking the right to make their own medical decisions away from half of the population.
No, the principles of the Grand Old Party lie in ruins. Cast down by the ”Populist” insurgents of the ’Freedom Caucus’, ’Tea Party’, and MAGA. The true Rino’s are not those who still think of themselves as Conservatives/Republicans, but the followers of Trump. An if you think this current act was bloody bear knuckles, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
After watching the State of the Union last Tuesday and the reaction of the GOP to what President Biden said about some members of the GOP wanting to end Social Security I started looking into just what he could be referring to. Luckily the news media and the President made it very easy for me to find what I was looking for. In the large ’Pamphlet’ published By Senator Rick Scott in his effort to get GOP candidates elected to the US Senate.
“All federal legislation sunsets in 5 years. If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again“
Such a simple phrase, so fraught with deadly effects. Lets just look at what it says: ”All federal legislation…..” That means every law, ever passed by Congress, from the first congress till today would nolonger be in effect after 5 years. If you don’t think that this means a lot of work, just look at the US Tax code. A conservative estimate is that we currently have 300,000 active statutes at this time. But let’s not forget all the other laws and acts passed by congress. Would this law include all of the 47 enabling acts that added new states to the union? Who would decide? The supreme court? What about all of the acts that established the size of the Supreme Court? Or just those acts that established the Federal Court system?
What about the acts that establish the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Space Force? Are they also sunseted? I don’t know. I don’t think anybody does. So I just ask this….Is it really worth the madness that would ensue just to play a trick move to get ride of two of the most popular laws in the country? An just what does proposing something this fraught with very bad side effects tell us about the the people and Party puting it fourward.
It came to me today that we can learn from the battle to elect a Speaker of the House of Representatives. There are, of course, many lessons that can be learned but there are two that can easily over looked. The effects and costs of ”Zero Sum” politics and a ”Three Party” system.
Lets look at the last first, a more than two political parties in the House of Representatives. Usually when people think about having more than two national political parties they think that everything is decided by a simple ”plurality” (the most votes) wins the issue. Unfortunately that is not the case. There are times that the issue needs a majority + 1 of the persons voting to decided the issue. In other cases it can take 2/3 vote. So let us look at the simplest case, three parties in the House and lets call the X, Y, Z. and lets give them the following members X:200, Y: 202, and Z: 33.
If the vote needs only a simple majority of persons voting to pass and the Y’s all vote in favor it passes. but it needs 50% +1 of the total persons voting it wont pass unless it can pick up 16 votes from the X or Z parties. Sounds easy, right? It’s not because you have to be sure not to loose any votes in your horse trading and this can be as easy as make a deal with the worst enemy of someone on your side. If you don’t believe me go back to the 1950/60 and look at the problems they had when the sub group of the Democratic Party known as the Dixicrats held sway in the old south.
This issue with a strong an united sub-group or even a formalized caucus is what the GOP leadership is having to deal with. The real issue is not who will be Speaker, but who has the power to stop anything they want, when ever they want. This is who will control the House of Representatives in the 118th Congress.
Now lets get to the first lesson, the effects of using ”Zero Sum game theory” in politics. Just for those of you who are not very clear of just what I’m talking about just go to this link (Zero Sum). With that lets just go with the back idea that in every transaction you can only win or loose. It is strictly Binary. There are no ties if a deal/transaction is made. You can have a ’tie’, of a kind, when a trade/deal is not made. Both sides loose. Now lets add just a little spice into the game. All players must be seen to be winners to stay in the game.
Now lets say your in a league where if the people watching it decide you are a ”looser” you are removed from play, forever. An now lets add in that it doesn’t mater how successful you wins are compared to your losses:
example you make 10 deals where you make $100 and 20 deals where you loose $40 for a total of $60 in the black but all your judged by is 20 losses to 10 wins. in basic zero sum game theory every win is exactly equal to every loss. This is really true. Now lets and in just a little more hate to the game.
Lets say that what constitutes a win/loss is variable? Lets look at a chess move for example. I get to move a knight and it can do one of three things: first it can just move to a empty space. Second it can take a pawn and third it can take a Bishop. in the simple zero sum game only the first move would be seen as a loss for me and all the others a win. now lets judge by the value of the pice taken, the only the third move would be a win. An now lets do real chess, and the first move places my opponent into check-mate.
An now I can hear you all saying that chess is a zero-sum game. An it is, an it is an excellent example of why it is not as simple as counting win/loss. You have to keep the end objective in mind. The value of any move is not just the value of the piece taken, but the position the trade puts you in. An this is the trap people who don’t understand game theory fall into. The only see the immediate value in the trade and not where it will place you for future trades.
This is the trap some of the members of the GOP in the House are falling into. They see every deal as just win/loss. Ignoring the relative value of the things exchanged, nor the relative position each member of the trade is after the move.
So I say to them, if you insist on using Zero-Sum game theory for politics remember chess. Chess is a zero-sum game but every move is not equal, to win you need to think many many move ahead and finally remember that all optimally plaid games end in a draw. In politics this means nothing gets done. Not something the electorate like to see in the next election.
With the election over but for the shouting I thought I’d put in a few words on the continuing ”Sheldon Crisis” happening. While we still have something like 12 House seats to be called at this writing it is still anybodies game on who will control the House in the next Congress. The best numbers I’ve been fallowing give the GOP control with 218-220 (1 to 3 seat control) I toght I’d just point out some things the House GOP will be facing soon.
First some things to keep in mind are: First in the last Congress the Dems, for once, did not have as fractious caucus as the GOP will have in the new Congress. Next is that the last time we had a Congress with such a slim majority for a party and the Majority party had such a fanatical member caucus was way back in 1856, or there about. Finally Kevin McCarthy has little to no experience running a majority Caucus.
So what can we look forward to in the coming weeks…..
First I expect to see a knock-down drag-out battle over leadership in the GOP House Caucus. An not just for the speakership, keep you eyes on who gets to be the Whip and who gets to be the Chair of the GOP Leadership. If any of these three go to members of the “Freedom Caucus” then things are going to get wild.
Depending on the results of the Leadership battle I expect to see little or nothing done (best case scenario) to hearings after hearing investigating all things Biden and/or Democratic and/or things MAGA hates. If MAGA gets the Speakership the only real question will be if Biden is Impeached two or three times.
An the worst case scenario is for the GOP to fail to fund the government and close down everything for several weeks. I really don’t expect this last one because the last time they tried this they got totally sandbagged in the next election.
Fifty years ago, yesterday, I voted for the first time. Ever since then I’ve celebrated and today is no different. What is different is I’m not just say ”Go Vote”. Today I’m saying ”Go Vote like the Nation depends on it.”
This time I’m truly worried for the Nation this time. The ’election deniers’, the ultra extremist MAGA who promise that if elected that Republicans will never loose another election have succeeded in scaring me.
So let me say this. Any candidate, for any office, who says the following does not deserve your vote.
The 2020 election was stollen.
I will not except the results where I do not win
That 1/6/21 was NOT an attempted Insurrection.
It is up to everyone who believes in the American Way to totally and completely shutdown this kind of talk and behavior. So please, if you do reject this kind of thought and behavior and have not yet voted, Go Vote!
For over 60 years now what we now call the ”Conservative Movement” has been chasing the ’Car’ of what they thought of as the Ultra Left Wing Liberals control of the courts. They didn’t have much luck in the 60’s with their voters split between the two major parties but with the advent of the ’Southern Strategy’ in ’69 by the Nixon campaign things have changed. An with the ferocious reaction to the Obama Presidency and mind blowing backlash of the Trump administration they have reached their goal. They have gained effective control of the Republican Party.
But like the dog chasing a car, they really have no clear idea what to do next. We hear lots of generalities like ”Tough on Crime” and ”Secure the Border”, and the traditional favorite “Balance the Budget”. We have heard these so many time before but once they GOP is in control nothing ever seems to happen. An I have a theory why this is.
The hypothesis is that they are just ”platitudes” to be said. The theory is that they are not meant to mean anything specific but rather they are indented to mean what ever the listener want’s it to mean. Lets just take one, ”Tough on Crime” as an example. To on audience it can mean doing something about the ”Evil” banks, while to someone else it is doing something about the street gangs or doing something to end the mass shooting in schools. What ”Tough on Crime” really means is getting though on things I don’t like. An each of these GOP platitudes is like this. They don’t mean anything and they mean everything. So that is the problem the GOP will be facing soon.
An like the dog who has caught the car the GOP is now facing the problem of ”What Now?” But unlike the dog the GOP has some clear options. They can do what the part of their base scares them the most. An hear I am talking about those who are most violent and hard to control. Or they can do what the most monied base wants. Or they can do what they think will get them the most power, either personal or as a group. The next few years will so just what the GOP leadership decides to do.
One of the first things I notice about Justice Alito’s option in Dobbs v Jackson was it was very careful about all of the texts in the Constitution it thought would apply or be affected by the decision. Except one. The IX Amendment (see above). Years ago when I first started to really started to study the Constitution one of my Professors called the IXth the forgotten amendment. We spent quite some time on just why it was forgotten and why it is so important.
Take a moment to look at it carefully. Now think about just what it is saying. It is just one sentence but it says something very important to all of us. In more modern language it says that the enumeration of specific rights, does not mean and should not be taken to mean, that the people do not still retain those rights. What Justice Alito’s ignoring of the Amendment seems to be implying is that the Federal Courts, and the Supreme Court in particular, has no role in protecting these unenumerated rights.
This idea is just one of many issues I have with both the ”Originalist” and/or ”Textualist” doctrines on interpreting the Constitution. I will not go into all of my issues with these two doctrines for they are legion. In stead I will concentrate on just one issue bought to light here. This is the idea that Enumerated Rights take president over unEnumerated rights to the extent that the IX Amendment is meaningless.
Before I start I’d like to point out one fundamental principle I have in reading the Constitution. There is nothing in it just for ”show”. Every word, every phrase, everything is there for a reason and therefor can not be ignored. Too many modern scholars of the Constitution seem to be unaware of this principle. They read the Constitution like “ Elmer Gantry“ read scripture. Quote what supports your view and ignore what contradicts you. We have seen this before in the “Great 2nd Amendment Debate” where the entire first clause is totally ignored. The same thing is being done with the IX Amendment, except it is the entire text being relegated to the trash bin.
What is truly fascinating about Dobbs is that in many many cases it takes head on the many of the clauses they wish to overturn in the reasoning of Roe vs Wade. Justice Alito does this in with the 15th Amendment. He does not with the IX. I think this is because, like himself, Roe vs Wade also ignores the IX. It also could be that he thought that the IX Amendment had no bearing on the case before the Court. (By the way, I accept this is a perfectly acceptable thing to do.) This seems to be stretching things just a might as Dobb’s deals with rights not enumerated in the Constitution (ie Privacy) and the IX Amendment is all about unenumerated rights.
In closing all we can really say is the Dobbs totally ignores the IX Amendment and we don’t know why.
The other day I came across, on my daily walk, what I took to be ”Time Capsule” that appeared to have been washed down from the mountains. The only problem is that everything seems to be dated from 220 AT. When I first saw it I thought it might be from the early Spanish Mission period of the San Fernando Valley. It was a square box of about 11” and about 5” tall. It seemed to be made out of kilned backed adobe. Upon closer examination I detected the use of a wire meshing made of coper wire. So definitely not from the Spanish Mission period.
The contents of the box turned out to be what appear to be some kind of analog sound recordings (3). Five USB sicks, and two SDD drives. Along with over 40 pages from what appears to be magazines, but not made of paper. Most pages did have pictures and many have what appears to be dates but have no relationship to any known calendar.
3 Ivana 211 AT
11 Baron 193 AT
29 Don 219
This last goes with a picture that show what seems to be some kind of ceremony taking place in the Capital in Washington D.C. It is captioned “The Assumption of power by Barron III, Trump and Autocrat of all the States”. In the picture is one person, presumably Barron III, before a line of men, no women are in the photograph, who are placing there hands between his, while they are kneeling.
Another photo is of a woman inspecting what appears to be a heavily fortified wall with a large number of bones on one side. The photograph is captioned ”Ivana II inspecting the Great Wall of the South”. Most of the pages with out photographs, have drawing and seem to deal with the Great accomplishments of Trump (again this seems to be a title and not a persons name). Other pages deal with the accomplishments of what are called Boss of Bosses, Great Boss, Bosses, and Little Boss. It seems that the Boss of Bosses is appointed by the Trump, but just what their responsibilities are is not clear. The Great Bosses seem to run the States, the Bosses counties and the little Bosses cities and towns.
This last maybe in error as there are several references to State governors, and Mayors of large cities. It is quite possible that the term “Boss” in all it’s forms is just slang. Until further study of the Box and it’s contents can be done any conclusions drawn are pure Speculation. Finally, the idea that the ”Time Capsule” is actually from either the future or an alternate time line is pure fiction.
I was a teenager in the 60’s (I turned 13 in 1964) and it just struck me why the radical right sounds so familiar. It is almost exactly what we were saying back then about ”the Man”, ”The Establishment” et al. Who hasn’t heard the MAGA crowd (or the Tea Party) crying about how bad the government is. How corrupt and untrustworthy the ______ is? (Fill in the blank). An now, in the past few days they are now attacking both the DOJ and the FBI as tools of the Deep state.
it has really taken me back to the Swinging Sixtes.
There are a few differences:
Then: It was Teenagers talking
Now: people with teenagers taking
Then: it was ”the Man”
Now: It is ”Hillary” or ”Obama” or ”Sorros”
Then: It’s all a Lie
Now: It’s all a plot
An let us not forget, ”never trust any over 30” and now it is ”never trust anyone under 60”. So if I seems to take all the noise and fury from the radical right it is I heard it all before from the radical left of my youth.
And for those of you who don’t recognize the photo above it is from the 1968 movie ”Wild in the Streets”.
