With the eminent start of early voting I think it is a good day to think about both the election of 2022 and 2024. Let me give some of the reasons I feel it is quite possible for the GOP not to win control of the Senate.
First and foremost Senate election are statewide so gerrymandering districts has no effect and that means primaries don’t decide who will win in the general election. You have to have a candidate who can attract voters out side of the parties base. This is hard to do with the control of the local party apparatus in the control of Trump/MAGA/Q supporters.
The next thing is to look at how much time and interest is being generated about the very local elections. MAGA/Trump/Q blessed candidates are running for a lot of local offices, especially offices that control/run elections. This has been taken notice of and a remarkable amount of effort is going into these local elections. It should be noted that these early, local elections often have very small turnout, in the low 20% all too often. An while that means they are decided by a very small vote it also means that it doesn’t take very many new voters to change the election. That means a relatively small number of none MAGA/TRUMP/GOP voters can make a big difference.
An this bearings me to the next point. The GOP is shrinking. The number of registered GOP voters is getting small. In many cases in actual numbers and not just a percentage. An don’t think the GOP leadership hasn’t taken notice of this. It just maybe one of the reasons the state GOP parties have been doing so much to limit who can and/or will vote. If they thought that the parties appeal was growing and the party was gaining voters they would be much more likely to make voting easier. Another problem facing the GOP is the number of registered Republicans who are totally disenchanted with the way the party is going. There is no easy way to measure this number, especially because of the retaliations inflicted on those that go public. But they are there and their number just maybe significant.
So the key is going to be the candidates. All the non-Republicans have to do is nominate candidates that accentuate the difference between the MAGA/Trump/Q Republican candidates and themselves.
Now lets look at the House Races. Not nearly as easy to define or categorize. Gerrymandering can and does have a significant effect on house elections. But here is the problem facing the GOP in all most all of the House elections. Just because you are a “registered” republican doesn’t mean you will vote for any Republican. In some districts, even gerrymandered districts, a few people will not vote by party affiliation. Also if the Republican candidate is a devout MAGA Republican they will have a harder time attracting independent voters much less Democratic voters.
The worst thing to happen in ‘sure win’ republican districts is for the non-base republicans to ‘stay home’ and for the independent and democratic voters to come out in force. An the state Republican parties, where they are in control of the state, seem to be bound and determined to do what ever they can to upset the non-MAGA base of the Republican Party.
So that’s all for now. Something to watch in the coming months.
NOTE: This was mostly written before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.