With the news of SCOTUS on Roe Vs Wade and the New York gun law along with what the Trump Mob tried to do last year I think it is time to say something about the people who don’t vote.
If you live in a Red state or district, or if it is even Purple and you don’t vote you are actually voting for the Republican candidate. An they like you not voting. They want you to not vote. Their bass is very motivated and will do what ever the Mob Boss tells them to do. Their is only one thing that can be done. Get out and vote. NOW!
If you don’t you are just empowering Capo Trump. An it will be you fault if they get control of the Congress. So remember, not Voting is what the Capo is betting you will do. Prove him Wrong.
For sometime now I’ve been intending to put my two cents in on what has been happening in many many “Red” (GOP controlled) states over the past year. I shan’t bother with the “Great Lie” about the 2020 election being stolen as that is a whole nother post. What ‘m gong to talk about is just what the people in the GOP hope for with all their “protect the vote” laws.
The first thing to remember is that, to date, no one, left-right-or center, has show any significant degree of voter fraud in the 2020 election(s). By significant I simply mean the amount of voter fraud is so small it would have not effected the results of even the tightest of races anywhere in the United States. So to say you want to change the laws on how/when/where/who participates in an election is simple a ‘Red Harring’ and I hope to show what they really are after here.
My view is that the MAGA hats that currently control the Republican Party, National, State, and Local, are actually after the control of who actually counts the votes. Partisan control of the vote count has a long and dubious history in this country. One of the most famous, or infamous, was “Boss Tweed” of New York City. Others though history, even dictators, have sought to control the power by controlling the vote count. It is the perfect way to keep the shiny veneer of legitimacy to those in power with the risk of actually loosing an election.
Don’t believe me, just look at the elections held in places like North Korea, Russia, or Iran. The control of the vote count is kept carefully in the hands of those who control the power. Some like “Boss Tweed” did not hold public/elective office, others did. So am I saying all of these laws, both proposed and pasted, have the control of the vote count as there true goal? No, I don’t. What I do say is that they are attempting to control who/where/and how we vote and much of it obfuscates the actual counting of the vote. Many laws also, whether intended of not, have the effect of limiting the vote.
That’s all for now. No proposed solutions. No call to action. Just a warning of what I see on the horizon. An just like a twister of on the horizon I have no idea if it is going to hit me. But I’m sure going to take precautions just in case.
Recently I’ve been seeing lots of polls showing 50% or 64% or 49% of a group supports or opposes something. In particular i’ve been seeing it applied to voters, that is Democrats, Independents and/or Republicans. What I rarely see is the number behind the number. Like how many of the “voters” are ‘D’ or ‘I’ or ‘R’? This can and is important.
Why do I say this? Let me show you. Lets say that 25% of all voters are ‘D’, 25% are ‘R’ and 50% are ‘I’. Lets also say that the total number of voters is 100. (Not the case as the actual number is in the 10’s of millions but 100 is an easy number to work with.). Given 100 voters we have 25 ‘D’ & ‘R’ and 50% ‘I’. Next lets say the issue I question only needs 50% + 1 voters to pass. If all the voters cast a ballot that means 51 voters need to vote yes. Got it? Good.
Now lets look at a poll that says 45% of the ‘D’s support issue ‘X’. 55% of ‘R’s oppose ‘X’ and 50% of ‘I’s support X’. That means (25*.45)+(25*.45)+(50*.50) will vote “Yes). Given that 25*.45 = 11.25 twice plus 25 giving us giving us just 47.5 votes “yes”. So ‘X’ doesn’t pass. But now lets change the number just a bit with 55% of the ‘D’s voting yes, 55% of the ‘R’s voting no and the ‘I’ splitting again 50/50 now the numbers are (25*.55)+(25 * .45)+50*.5) giving a total vote of 50 yes and 50 no giving us a tie.
Now lets get into the deep grass. Lets change the number of ‘I’ to 30, the ‘D’d to 45 and leave the ‘R’s at 25. How do the numbers change? In the first case ‘X’s still looses with only 46.5 yes votes but in the second case ‘X’ wins with 51 votes. This demonstrates quite clearly why knowing actual number is critical understanding just what the poll numbers mean. Besides the actual numbers we need to know just how the numbers are being counted.
By how they are being counted I mean are we talking registered voters, likely voters, or just asking the person being polled what party affiliation the have. Just a casual use of Google show just how wide a swing in numbers we have being reported. It is no wonder that anyone watching politics has full time teams analyzing the polling data and just what it is based on. So what are you to do?
My recommendation is to remember what I’ve said here and do the following. First and foremost check the predictions against actual election results. Not only did they call the election correctly for who won and lost but did the numbers match up with the prediction. Then, if the results are off, especially off by big numbers (I go by 5 percentage points or more but you are free to go by any numbers you want), do they publish any studies/analysis/etc on why they were off. What conclusions did they draw and do you agree/disagree with the conclusions. Once you find a place that you believe does a good job, stick with them. But remember “Trust but Verify” is still good advice.
An before you ask I do have a site on the Web I trust, it is 538 both it’s website and it’s podcasts. But just take my word for it, do your own work.
These are the words that started one of the most famous Agiprop works of mankind, Thomas Paine’s The American Crisis. It was written in the darkest hour of our, the American War for Independence. In December 1776 everything seemed to be going the British way. Boston and New York lost to the British Army and the American army defeated at Harlem Hights and almost totally captured just before escaping across the Hudson River to the wilds of New Jersey (yes, New Jersey had wilds in 1776).
While I know it doesn’t’ sound positive, as promised in my last two postings (the Nightmare twins) I will now write a positive piece this week. Unlike 1776, the United States of America is not in danger of being destroyed. No mater what happens in the 13+ months there will still be a country called the United States of America and it will, most likely, still be the same territory as it is now. What crisis faces us is it will not be the land that I have loved and fought for the past 54 years. We still might have the same written constitution but it will be greatly changed. It just might become just words written on a page, nice to look at but no one takes seriously.
The summer patriot and the sunshine voter may shrink from the call of there country; but he that comes out to the call of our nation and stands with the Constitution and all it stands for will be worthy of the praise of all, man, woman, and child. We now face a open and blatant move by those forces that have never accepted the dream that is the USA. Yes, they mouth the words and wrap themselves in the flag but we know them by their deeds.
They tell us they are Legion and that we are weak and can not win the day. They say that even if we do win the election they will rise up and ‘take the Country back’ with fire and furry. An we have heard this all before, time an again. An it is just like three plus years ago when HE started talking about MAGA (Make America Great Again). It was all advertising gobbledygook signifying nothing. We are now at a time to face the Spam Artist, the Snake Oil Salesmen, the Flim-Flam men and the pyramid scheme artist that we know who and what they are selling. They are trying to frighten us with how great and powerful they are and how weak and helpless we are. They want us to be so scared that we don’t vote.
So they tote out all the old tried and true symbols, like the burning cross on the hill top before Election Day. But now is the time to show just what true love of Country and Our Constitution means. Just like back in the 60’s we need to organize and stand up and say “No, I maybe afraid but I will not be prevented from my right. You will not prevail.” Just because I prefer to be polite that doesn’t mean I don’t no that what MAGA stands for is ”despicable”. I say load a clear that anyone who supports MAGA is Despicable, because they are promoting that which is Despicable. I don’t judge you by your words, I judge you by your actions and the actions of those who you support. If the action is Deplorable, then they are Deplorable. If those you support are Deplorable, then you, by your own willful actions of associations are deplorable.
As Thomas Paine called out in 1776, I call upon all who do not wish to be counted as a Sunshine Patriot to stand up! You don’t need to do much, but it will be hard. An as for some of the most patriotic acts it is quite simple to state but hard to do. Don’t listen to the AltNews flackery. When you read something check up on the source. If you don’t know how, ask for some help (yes I know it is hard to ask for help but you could be surprised by how willing people can be.). My recommendation is don’t accept anything from a self proclaimed think tank. That is more likely as not more option than hard fact. See if you can find the same reported facts from multiple sources across the political spectrum. Then make up your own mind. The one thing the MAGA flack machine fears is the ‘informed’ voter. So get informed and go out and vote. Vote in the primary, if your state has one, or go to your local Caucus, but go. Stand-up and be counted.
Now is the time for all good men & women to come to the aid of their Country!