Recently I’ve been rereading the Foundation Trilogy by Dr. Asimov and I noticed something for the first time. In the stories Dr. A never really gives the ready a good idea of just how long a ’Crisis’ takes to build and just what all of the key and/or important events are. Only the ones key to the story line. Which is great for telling a story but not so great for someone who is trying to extrapolate a Socio/Politico/History.
I’ve become aware of this with all of the small (relatively) small events that have been happening this past year. With the release of the latest Trump Tape where we can hear what is reported to be Donald Trump actually revealing what he said was/are classified documents/information to person(s) not cleared to have that information. He also made it clear that he understood, at that time, the rules and regulations regarding classified documents/information. What is important is currently Donald Trump has yet to be charged with the improper revelation of classified information, only the improper possession and failure to return government documents.
I’ve gone in to this detail to illustrate just how complex a Sheldon Crisis is and how it can turn on the smallest things. The small detail here is that he talked about it. Another detail is he let himself be recorded. Finally it shows that even if the Trump wins the Mar-A-Largo case he still faces possible charges in New Jersey for the actual act of disclosing the information to person or persons not cleared for that information.
So inclosing we currently have two major ’crux points’ in the Crisis, the New York State charge(s) and the Federal Mar-A-Largo charges. We have another two potential ’cruxes’; the possible Federal charge(s) on reveling of classified information in New Jersey and the Federal Sedition charge(s) in D.C. Both of these could be made up of many smaller crux points. Which points are important and which are not is the question. I guess we will just have to wait and see, or until the Vault opens at Terminus City.
The time has come that we must accept that the nickname of the Republican Party, “Grand Old Party”, is no longer applicable . It should now be known as “Trump’s Own(ed) Party”. I don’t say this lightly. Nor do I contend that this is primarily the results of the growth of the MAGA movement in the party. I say this mostly because of what has happened the last two and a half months. From the insurrectionist attack on the Capitol, to the failure of a majority of both House and Senate Republicans to act responsibly and reject the attempts invalidate the lawful election results. To the failure of all but seven Republican Senators to vote for Trump’s conviction in his 2nd impeachment trial. To the blatant two-faced actions of Senate Minority Leader McConnell in his speech condemning President Trump on the Senate floor and his statement that he would support Donald J. Trump in 2022 if he was the Republican nominee.
The reason why I think we should call the Republican Party the “T.O.P.” is that:
1)The effort of several State Republican Parties to censure those elected party members for their actions in aforementioned impeachment.
2) The public statements of both House and Senate members of the Republican Party finding nothing wrong with the actions of the mob on Jan 6th.
3) The effort to either stop completely, or at least make totally impotent, the proposed independent commission to investigate just what happened on 6 January.
4) And let us not forget the numerous trips down to Florida by elected and non-elected members of the Republican Party for ‘Photo-Ops’ with Donald J. Trump.
5) And finally, and most complex, the fight between the National Republican Party and Donald J. Trump over the use of his, Trump’s, image and name. And then his counter punch stating that his, Trump’s, supporters should stop giving to the National Republican Party and instead send their donations to his, Trump’s, private PAC. The National Republican Party has asked the Trump Organization to host a major fundraiser at Mar-a-Logo.
I fully expect to see the complete and total capitulation of the leadership of the Republican Party to both the Trump Organization and to Donald J. Trump in the next year. Therefor we should be calling the Republicans by what they truly are: Trump’s Own(ed) Party or the TOP.
Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying there will not be a political party known as the Republicans. Not at all. What I’m saying is the political party we know as the Republican Party will be no more. It will go the way of the Federalists, the Wigs, and the Know Nothings to name just a few. What do these all have in common? They all have gone the way for good.
No to say the political ideals the stood for, an fought for have all gone away. In some cases, like the Federalists, many of their ideal the stood for have become totally institutionalized in the American political landscape. Something every American takes as a given and is proud of. In other cases like the Know Nothings, while their ideals also became a part of the American Political landscape they are not something we can take pride in. But in all cases’ the political movements these parties represented have faded away in history. And this is what is facing the Republican Party from Lincoln to Eisenhower.
From the late 1960’s the the Republican Party has been an ill advised wedding of the Economic Conservatives and the Social Conservatives. On the surface it would look like a match made in heaven. But it was not. All too often Social Conservatives were not Economic Conservative votives and Economic Conservative were not Social Conservatives. All they agreed upon was their knee jerk reaction to the label ‘Liberal’. They were told by their leaders that “liberals’ were a monolithic block. If you were ‘liberal’ on economics you had to be ‘liberal’ on social issues too. An for many years this worked. Thru the Regan/Bush administrations the Economic Conservatives could depend on the whole ‘conservative’ base to vote Republican. An this base grew.
But not only did it grow, it ossified. At the turn of the century the base became more and more under the control of the leaders of the Social Conservatives. They gave bear the to the ‘Religious Right’. People who said ’No need to think or examine critically, just ‘Believe’ us and you will be in the right. When the leaders of the Republicans saw how well this worked with the ‘Religious Right’ they took it one step further and told all their followers “Accept what we tell you. The ‘Liberals’ are lying to you. Don’t accept all that scientific mumbo-jumbo they spout, it will just confuse you”. An when they did, the base did exactly what it’s leaders wanted. It ossified into a sold base that would do what the leaders wanted, in mass. Unfortunately it had one or two faults.
The first fault to be seen was that it was unruly. It wanted to think it was choosing it’s leaders. An so the “Tea Party” movement was born. Followed quickly by the Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives. The next fault happened in the Republican leadership. They became committed to “winning”. They accepted the old half-time idea that “Wining isn’t everything. It is the only Thing!” That power, and the un-restrained use of power became their only political principle. This meant that if the leaders wanted to keep their power they had to lead where ever the monolithic base decided to go.
An that leaders us to the age of Donald John Trump. A man who had spent his entire adult life selling the same people who made up the Republican Base and many of the Republican Leadership ‘Snake-Oil’. In 2015/16 he saw that the Democratic Party was going to make one of the biggest mistakes in it’s long history. Maybe as big, if not bigger, as the mistake(s) it made in 1860. They were going to nominate someone who was either personally distrusted or not like by lots of the electorate and someone who could and would motivate many of the undecided away from the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton. In 2016 there were very few people who had not heard of her and did not have an opinion of her. It was the perfect time for someone who had great name recognition but almost no-one really knew. So Donald J. Trump jumped in and won.
He not only won the nomination, he, against everything, won the election. Not that he really either want’ed the job or knew what to do with it once he had it. An along the way he convinced the Republican Base that they were no longer the Republican Base, they were the Trump Base. That only he knew, truly, what they wanted. That only he knew how to get it for them. That anyone, anywhere, who attacked him was attacking them. He started with the ‘Deplorables’ and moved on from there. An the Republican leadership quaked in their boots every time he roared and his crowds roared back.
An so here we are, 2020. They year that everything started to come apart. The election is over and it is looking more and more likely that Joe Biden has won. But while it is totally understandable that Pres. Trump can not bring himself to accept the lost, it it not so understandable why the Republican leadership is following his lead. We will have to wait and see after the Senate run-offs in Georgia to see if they will follow Donald J. Trump down the rabbit hole. Only time will tell us that.
This Week Donald J. Trump has made it clear that he will only support a peaceful transition of power if he wins. This is so wrong on so many levels I’m not sure I can cover them all. First and foremost for a candidate, much less the sitting President, to say he will not support the Peaceful Transfer of Power has never in our history happened. The closest we ever have gotten to this was in 1860 and we all know what happen then. Four years of war and hundreds of thousands of American dead. We are still recovering from all the damage that irresponsible and unpatriotic action to this day.
Just think about it. In over 240 years of our history only once before did a group of people say they would not accept the results of the election and once more we are there. And just what kind of people are we talking about? We are talking about people who can only accept a total win. Give them 90% of what they want and they cry “I was robbed”. Disagree with them and they are being unjustly attacked. These are people who have never, ever, done anything wrong. Not once. And when they are caught out cheating they say the other guy was cheating first. These are the people who make up the MAGA core support for Donald J Trump. These are people who have seized control of the “Grand Old Party” and are turning into the “Trump’s Owned Party”.
So what can be done. Basically two things. First the defeat of Donald J. Trump must be so overwhelming that no cry of “I was Cheated” can be taken seriously by any sane person. Second, and equally important, every member of the House of Representatives who does not denounce Trump’s call to not accept results of the election peacefully should be voted out of office. This goes for every Senator, too. This is no longer a issue of party partisanship. This is a mater of Loyalty to the Constitution of the United States of America. Now is the time for every member of the Republican Party to be asked “Where are the Americans Here?”
Once more we are diving into the dark and murky waters of the coming Presidential Elections. In this one we will be looking at just what might be facing Donald J. Trump once he has lost the election and is out of office. We will not concern ourselves with just how he is removed and just concern ourselves with just what he might be facing.
V.P. Biden wins the election decisively in both the popular vote and the electoral collage
The GOP is decisively defeated in both the House of Representatives and the Senate (the Democrats do not loose a single seat in the Senate and gain all possible tossup seats)
Donald J Trump does everything he can to confuse the election, including getting contested delegations of Electors from several states.
All of the ‘criminal’ investigations being conducted are investigating actual activities and actions that have taken place, and have available sufficient evidence to bring charges against Donald J Trump.
Trump knows and understands just exactly what the previous postulate means for both him.
The above is not the results of what some may call a “Blue Tsunami” but is still a crushing victory. While the Democrats do hold control of both houses of Congress they do not hold such a large majority as to be able to do what they want without any votes from the GOP. That is, they hold less that 291 seats in the House and less than 67 seats in the Senate. But their control is such that there is very little the GOP can do to stop any investigations into both the activities of the Trump administration or the actions of the Senate while they had control.
What would be facing the former Trump administration is an set of investigations that would make the investigations into the Harding Administration look like a child’s Tea Party. Just to name a few of the possible investigations:
The ICE “Detention” of minor undocumented imagrents
The Actions of the A.G. Barr in regards to investigations into activities of “Friends of Trump”
Was the Roger Stone Pardon given for unlawful reasons?
The actions both on and off the bench of all of the Judges appointed by Trump and confirmed by the Senate who were rated as “Unqualified” by the ABA
To add a little hate to the game I even tho the Republican defeat was not a “Blue Tsunami” it still would be quite devastating if few non-MAGA members of the party are left. Those GOP office holders would be faced with a very hard Choice in the coming elections. An some of them know enough of their political history to recognize just what may happen. The GOP may go the way of the Federalist Party and the Wig Party. To find this off they will have to take control back from the MAGA GOP and this will not be easy. They will most likely face the same problems the Democrats faced with their Dixiecrats staged their rebellion. An that will mean a very long time in the wildernesses with out any assured victory at the end.
It will also be painful for the Republicans because they are going to have to face a “Paradigm”shift in their thinking. They will have to stop thinking that “Victory isn’t everything, It is the Only Thing” and start thinking “What are our principles?” They are going to have to accept the idea of compromise and stop believing that the only position is “My way or the Highway.” They are going to have to accept the idea (With apologies to Oliver Cromwell:
“Please in the Name of GOD consider the Possibility that you are Mistaken.”
Knowing that Donald J. Trump is a well known and notorious cheat at the game of golf can help us understand just what can happen once he is not convicted by the Senate. As I have said in an earlier post here golf is one of the easiest, if not the easiest, game to cheat at. I shan’t go into the details here. Here I will address one of the questions I have been hearing, time after time, in the Senate Trial. Even if Pres. Trump did everything he is accused of why shouldn’t we leave it up to the voters in November?
The simple answer is that it is a total certainty that he will CHEAT. He will cheat where he has to and he will cheat where he doesn’t have to. This is what people who cheat at golf do. Why do they do this? I can really answer as I’m not a psychologist but I do have one or two ideas. First and foremost it is just an exercise in power. They are saying “See, I can do it and you can’t. See how powerless you are? You won’t even try to keep me from cheating. Your my bitch.” Another reason is I think they don’t know how to not cheat. It is so ingrained in their character they default to cheating.
I closing don’t get depressed. It is not inevitable that Pres. Trump is going to win re-election come November. Even though we know he is going to be cheating. We have 50 state governments who actually run the election. An even though many of them are run in Toto by the Republicans not all, I dare say even a majority, are so corrupt that they will be willing to go along with his cheating schemes to win the election. Also Trump and his MAGA maybe a majority of the elected GOP they are not a majority of the electorate. An one way to keep the cheating from mattering is to get out the largest vote, in both numbers and percentage of the electorate, ever seen in the history of the Republic.
Today is the start of the Senate Trial of the Impeachment of Donald John Trump, President of the United States. An the American people have fallen down the rabbit hole into the trial of the Knave of Harts where we have the Verdict first then the trial. I say this because of the trail rules initially proposed by the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell last night. With some thought and consideration given to quick mods made just before things got started.
Like Alice I expect most Americans who follow the Trial will be quite perplexed by what they see and hear. First because the Senate method of operations is often arcane in the extreme. This is especially true when many of the Senators are worried about their electorate and just what they will think. It is a grand old Senate tradition obfuscate in hope the people back home will not notice what just happened. The rules for the trial, as they currently stand, go a good way towards this goal. An just like Alice the American people just get to watch and wonder.
I do not envy Senator McConnell the job he is facing. He has to, first, keep Pres. Trump happy/pleased. If he doesn’t there is no telling what Pres. Trump might do but a roaring tirade is not off the table. Next he must insure that Pres. Trump is not only not convicted by 67 votes but that it is done in such away that Pres. Trump can say he was 1) exonerated and 2) found innocent. All the time making the trial look fair and honest. The one thing the GOP does not need is to go into the election year tarred with a trial seen as rigged and/or unfair. When you start a trial with the verdict already decided by the jury it is often quite hard to look fair, even when it is.
I wait with baited breath to see how this plays out.
Well, it looks like the Senate Trial of the Impeachment of Donald John Trump is moving again with the vote to name the House Managers and to send the Impeachment Articles to the Senate scheduled for Tomorrow (15 Jan 2020). I can’t wait to see what will happen in the Senate. While I’ve been reluctant since 2016 to make any predictions in politics I’m going to make some now.
First an easy one: What every happens in the Senate in the coming weeks it is going to be historic. Yeah, I know, it is kind of a given but I don’t mean historic in the since of this being only the third trial of an Impeached President in our history. It is going to be historic because of the actions taken by Majority Leader McConnell. So on to my second prediction.
The use of Republican Newspeak is going to be on display before the general public like never before. Weather you support or oppose Pres. Trump it is very important to pay attention to what is being said and how it is being said. Unlike Pres. Trump and those around him most of the Senators do care about being caught in an out right lie. Especially on camera. Even those Senators in safe states and who aren’t up for re-election for four years from now care. This trial has a very long half-life and everything they say and every vote they cast will be fodder for campaign aids.
Majority Leader McConnell will do everything in his power to minimize the damage done to him and the Republicans in the Senate. An most if not all of his actions will be off camera and out of sight. Yes, I know there will be no way to check this for years to come but I like making it anyway.
My last prediction: No mater the outcome of the Trial every Senator, Republican or Democrat is going to have unholy hell rain down on them from Trump and his people. An not just the people in the US, I’m including in this everyone he, Trump, can convince to take action. This is because Donald J Trump is know not only for being a Golf Cheat, and lier, he is also know for someone who seeks retribution on any and everyone who he thinks wronged him. He even brags about it.
With his Terrible Tweets this weekend threatening to target historical and cultural sites in Iran President Donald J. Trump has shown just what kind of deplorable person he is. I use the word ‘deplorable’ here advisedly. Anyone who wants to take exception and say I shouldn’t call them deplorable, in most case I am not. I am, thought, calling Donald J. Trump a Deplorable person and disavowing this kind of action.
Unlink the people in history like the Huns, Vandals, or Goths who were, in fact, uncivilized barbarians, we, Americans, are not. We do not have the excuse of not reconnecting just what we would be destroying if we do target such sites. These historical/cultural places are not just Iranian, they belong to all the people of the word. An while people like Pres. Trump can not understand this, these sites can not be monetized. They are, literally beyond price. To be responsible for any kind of damage to them is horrible. To do it deliberately is a true crime against humanity.
So lets not forget that the United States has said it would not, not ever, deliberately harm, in any way historical/cultural sites, EVER. That we, the Unites States call out any action that would deliberately target, much less damage, historical/cultural sites as a “War Crime”. Yes, we have done it in the past, and every time we have had to pay a price in reputation much higher than anything we gained in doing it. It is time for the People of the United States to remember just who we are and what we stand for. We must face the question “Are we Americans or are we Vandals?”
In closing I will state this very clearly. Any one, American or not, who supports President Trump in targeting any Historical/Cultural site is just as responsible and just as Deplorable as he is.
In the coming year many many well known and famous people are going to get what they have wished for. Donald J. Trump has already got some of his this last year and 2020 promises to give him even more. So has Mitch McConnell. Just to mention two. But more will get there wish, an just like the wishes granted by the Jinn in the Lamp it will not be what you think it is.
Just looking as his past actions Pres. Trump has striven most of his adult life for recognition, for people to “know his name”. I think, like very many of our Presidents he also wanted to go down in history. Well, he is getting both. Like Joe McCarthy the current age will long be known as the Trump Era. An just like the McCarthy Era certainly does not stand for what Joe McCarthy would have hoped for the Trump Era too will stand for something Donald J Trump does not wish.
How can I say this? Easily, I do not believe in ‘storybook villains’ who knowingly, willfully commit evil acts because they are evil. To them their acts are for the good. Their own personal good, but still for the good. Like most accomplished hypocrites they lie to themselves. They are willfully blind to the harm their actions do and they do not feel any pain for their actions. This makes it easy for the Jinn to turn the wish on the master of the Lamp (or ring, or bottle).
Weather it takes a year or two or many many decades history will record the Trump Era as a turning point in the American experiment. I do not know if we are on a new age of building the American Dream or at the start of the Fall of the Republic but I do believe we are approaching, if not in, a Crux of American history as Portentous as the Civil War or the Progressive Era. I do think we are there, now.
So for my New Years wish to all who read or may read this.
May you have a happy 2020 and may you work to make everyone you meet this year happy they have met you.